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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Shakespeare 2016 said:
Hopefully it is not true but I had a dream about this upcoming tornado outbreak and it was really horrible. It is a scary premonition.
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Unfortunately this actually did happen to me several years before April 27, 2011 and the Joplin EF5 tornado on May 22, 2011. I was reading the storm reports and it said in one report over 100 people dead. It freaked me out in my dream and I thought to myself this can't happen but it did.
 
Maxis_s said:
In all honesty I don't even see that much morning convection being likely, and the cells randomly dying in the OWS seems unlikely to me as well. I don't know how realistic that sort of recovery is, however.
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Yeah. Friday night seems to be the biggest question mark. In all honesty, if we had a big squall line moving thru Friday night, then yeah that would be a limitation. But since you don't really have that and no model is really showing that idea, it doesn't really help hinder Saturday much if at all.
 
jiharris0220 said:
I’ll like to remind everyone that this is Dixie valley, and that in potent setups like this, morning convection matters little. Hate to compare 2011 here but Han entire MCS moved through the warm sector and yet rapid recovery occurred.

point being .
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no I mean it's a good example because it shows what can happen when you have that secondary surface low really backing the low-level winds and creating a stronger LLJ. you get that LLJ cranking and you're gonna have strong enough advection to recover that airmass PDQ.
 
Richardjacks said:
I really dont know if I should believe the the 48 hr of the hrrr...prob should look to the nam and gfs another run to see if that's support. Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't that the first time we have seen that look for Saturday morning?
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Correct. And end-of-range HRRR can do weird things.
 
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