Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[Kds86z]

Convection, although severe, from the morning round, would theoretically help decrease instability. However, instability still fills in rapidly behind it, which goes to show some of the floor and ceiling discussions we were having earlier. I certainly hope this outcome will verify, but will have to wait and see.
View attachment 35374View attachment 35375

If there’s EML though why is it showing this

 

[ColdFront]

Yeah as others have laid out, we are still well over 24 hours away, will have to see how this trends as it gets closer

 

[warneagle]

View attachment 35376
Does the crapvection seriously have that little of an effect???

if the LLJ is strong enough you're gonna get strong advection of warm/moist air and recover the atmosphere pretty rapidly. could limit the northern extent of the threat though (similar to how the late-morning MCS did on 4/27/11).

 

[Clancy]

Taken verbatim, this reminds me a good bit of Easter 2020, and if this exact scenario were to play out, it would probably look somewhat similar.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

View attachment 35376
Does the crapvection seriously have that little of an effect???

That's a freaking nightmare. Good gosh

 

[Maxis_s]

Now showing cells popping up on confluence bands in the OWS, and good gosh the parameters are still insane. Not much of a downtrend.

 

[WeatherDan]

View attachment 35376
Does the crapvection seriously have that little of an effect???

 

[JPWX]

View attachment 35376
Does the crapvection seriously have that little of an effect???

It depends on how fast it moves in and gets out.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Is a rapid reload that plausible? The 00z hrrr is almost a worst case scenario.

 

[ColdFront]

Kind of odd what happened to the cells in central Alabama at the end of the run.

 

[JPWX]

if the LLJ is strong enough you're gonna get strong advection of warm/moist air and recover the atmosphere pretty rapidly. could limit the northern extent of the threat though (similar to how the late-morning MCS did on 4/27/11).

Was thinking that exact thing, but didn't want to say it specifically.

 

[Clancy]

Apparently this run is saying "your convection means nothing to me."

 

[warneagle]

View attachment 35378
Now showing cells popping up on confluence bands in the OWS, and good gosh the parameters are still insane. Not much of a downtrend.

yeah the fact that it's modeling confluence bands on the OWS is a big red flag, that's something you often see in the higher-end events in Dixie Alley

 

[Kds86z]

It depends on how fast it moves in and gets out.

It’s such a dynamic system though…

 

[Maxis_s]

Is a rapid reload that plausible? The 00z hrrr is almost a worst case scenario.

In all honesty I don't even see that much morning convection being likely, and the cells randomly dying in the OWS seems unlikely to me as well. I don't know how realistic that sort of recovery is, however.

 

[tornado examiner]

It’s not really a downtrend, just a change to the scenario outcome that could be better or worse.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Apparently this run is saying "your convection means nothing to me."
View attachment 35380

The individual well spaced updraft swaths are huge red flags. High risk day 2 seems very plausible to me.

 

[warneagle]

Was thinking that exact thing, but didn't want to say it specifically.

I mean yeah, I obviously wasn't implying it was going to be that type of event, and I assume everyone here is smart enough to pick up on that subtext, but it is a useful example of how you can get rapid airmass recovery behind morning junk convection when you have strong dynamics in the low levels

 

[sak]

Honestly, the terminology used in SPC messaging is not very good. "Moderate" doesn't sound very threatening to a layperson who only follows weather information casually. I'm glad James Spann always mentions the level number, because Level 4 out of 5 sounds a lot more urgent.

i've said this multiple times... but whoever decided "enhanced" should be 3/5 and "moderate" should be 4/5 was a diabolical lunatic (sorry, not sorry). those should obviously be switched.

 

[ColdFront]

In all honesty I don't even see that much morning convection being likely, and the cells randomly dying in the OWS seems unlikely to me as well. I don't know how realistic that sort of recovery is, however.

The cells were dying right where that MCS had hung out for a few hours