Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[tornado examiner]

The March 3, 2019 Beauregard EF4 happened under an enhanced risk

Mother nature don’t care about colors on a map

23 fatalities from that one…

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

The March 3, 2019 Beauregard EF4 happened under an enhanced risk

Mother nature don’t care about colors on a map

wasn't chapman in a 2%

 

[tornado examiner]

wasn't chapman in a 2%

Matador too…well…til a 5% tor risk was issued as it was on the ground.

 

[Bamamuscle]

The March 3, 2019 Beauregard EF4 happened under an enhanced risk

Mother nature don’t care about colors on a map

Wasn’t cookville ef-4 (2020) under a slight risk? Like on the edge of it?

 

[jiharris0220]

Here’s an example of how the LLJ could help in mixing out the EML, this sounding is taken at 7:00am Saturday.

See the EML? now notice what happens at 750mb, and now look to the right at the wind barbs, particularly at the elevated wind speeds at the same level.

The LLJ erodes the EML at a depth of 700-750mb, it’s advecting moist air into it which causes a pinch off, this makes it easier for convection to break through the cap.

This hardly happens at all in the plains which is why you need far higher instability and stronger forcing at those locations to have OWS convection.

 

[The Nino]

I’ve always had the feeling of “gosh, I want to know, but am I able to accept what I find out?”

Yea my feelings exactly. Feel pretty uneasy about this one, especially north Alabamas history with these type systems

 

[172556]

Wasn’t cookville ef-4 (2020) under a slight risk? Like on the edge of it?

Marginal

Edit: May have barely been in slight and crossed into marginal

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Marginal

Edit: May have barely been in slight and crossed into marginal

yup. edge of the 2%

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

and Dayton was just outside of the 10%

 

[CentralKyWeather]

Current Day 3 Moderate area diffently has high potential. I'm curious on how the messy convection potential in the morning plays out and for how long....? And recovery time....?
I see two potential zones Saturday for Supercell activity.
1.) Portions of Ky/Southern Indiana
2.) Then obviously the MDT risk area

 

[KevinH]

View attachment 35345

For a lack of a better term/phrase, oh my god...

Me playing catch up again lol

Why is this concerning? This does not look like a lot of rain/convection compared to others?

 

[Clancy]

Why is this concerning? This does not look like a lot of rain/convection compared to others?

That is precisely the problem. Seeing NAM, with its linear bias, spitting out discrete activity, is quite a concerning thing.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

That is precisely the problem. Seeing NAM, with its linear bias, spitting out discrete activity, is quite a concerning thing.

for more than one run at that

 

[Argus]

Atlanta has the St. Patricks Day parade on Saturday around lunchtime.

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

Atlanta has the St. Patricks Day parade on Saturday around lunchtime.

Atlanta should be fine at that hour

 

[Austin Dawg]

If you're in a

Atlanta should be fine at that hour

If you're in Missouri Valley, you should be paying attention torrow. Really looks bad in the mid south. I plan on spending most of the day on this board and on the radar app Saturday.

We spent a lot of time comparing events to 427 2011 and we forget all about what with things like what happened two weeks before that

 

[KevinH]

That is precisely the problem. Seeing NAM, with its linear bias, spitting out discrete activity, is quite a concerning thing.

Oh!

 

[KevinH]

When will we get a better idea about these possible supercells or storms that could come through early Saturday morning? My brother lives in Montgomery and I would like to give him a heads up before he goes to bed tommorow night if this is a possibility.
View attachment 35352

I would just go ahead and tell him its a possibility now and let him take it from there. Central Alabama is not in a good place for this set up :/

 

[Maxis_s]

Here we go!

 

[Richardjacks]

I am trying nto catch up from a busy afternoon....did I miss anything? I saw the last frame of the 18z hrr which looked very concerning.