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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Your open warm sector cells are usually your more efficient cyclic tornado producers and long trackers. The forcing is more subtle, so the storm doesn’t have to compete with others for fuel. Its distance from any boundary also works in its favor as it allows it space and to not be overtaken by the dry line or cold front. Supercells on 4/3/74 that went up 200 miles east of the dry line had remarkable life spans easily lasting 4-5 hours in some cases.
 
Question for the pros here: Are there any potential issues regarding resolution accuracy since we are looking at 2 significant phases with this system? Any sort of convective feedback per say that might make phase 2 look more or less potent? Meaning the models have to dig through phase 1 tomorrow/night to get to phase 2 Sat/night. Just didn't know if that might be an issue. Hope that makes sense....
 
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Muwx said:
This just simply isn’t true. Weather models aren’t nearly that good yet. There are just too many unknowns. Cameron Nixon had some good thoughts on this a bit ago:

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Yeah, he does bring up a good point and to play devils advocate. At the same time though, I don’t necessarily think some of the strong wording and language being used by the SPC and Mets is unwarranted at all. You can’t just drop the risk level because LCLs and high low level wind shear may be bad for updrafts.

Edit: now that I’m reading this again, isn’t that a very common set up in southeast based events? Low LCLs, sometimes an EML, with really strong low level shear? I can think of a few events off the top of my head that featured these.
 
ColdFront said:
Yeah, he does bring up a good point and to play devils advocate. At the same time though, I don’t necessarily think some of the strong wording and language being used by the SPC and Mets is unwarranted at all. You can’t just drop the risk level because LCLs and high low level wind shear may be bad for updrafts.

Edit: now that I’m reading this again, isn’t that a very common set up in southeast based events? Low LCLs, sometimes an EML, with really strong low level shear? I can think of a few events off the top of my head that featured these.
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I don’t think he’s advocating for lowering the risk or trying to say the SPC is overblowing this, just that there are still a lot of possible flies in the ointment that can’t be resolved at this range.
 
ColdFront said:
Yeah, he does bring up a good point and to play devils advocate. At the same time though, I don’t necessarily think some of the strong wording and language being used by the SPC and Mets is unwarranted at all. You can’t just drop the risk level because LCLs and high low level wind shear may be bad for updrafts.

Edit: now that I’m reading this again, isn’t that a very common set up in southeast based events? Low LCLs, sometimes an EML, with really strong low level shear? I can think of a few events off the top of my head that featured these.
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Hope Fred can touch on this
 
ColdFront said:
Yeah, he does bring up a good point and to play devils advocate. At the same time though, I don’t necessarily think some of the strong wording and language being used by the SPC and Mets is unwarranted at all. You can’t just drop the risk level because LCLs and high low level wind shear may be bad for updrafts.

Edit: now that I’m reading this again, isn’t that a very common set up in southeast based events? Low LCLs, sometimes an EML, with really strong low level shear? I can think of a few events off the top of my head that featured these.
Click to expand...
I'll touch on it. I think there's a little too much "applying Plains logic to the SE" going on here. Low LCLs are commonly concurrent with weak low level lapse rates. Temps need to warm at the surface to steepen low level lapse rates. By definition, if the dewpoint is not rising, this will increase T/Td spreads and lead to LCLs being higher. Should there be some degree of clearing on Saturday, there will be some heating.

Weak low level lapse rates are generally hostile to developing updrafts. With that said, this is more commonly a problem when forcing is lacking, which won't really be the case here.

Most SE events indeed feature low LCLs because the you are closer to the Gulf and the environments climatologically are more moist than in the Plains. Low LCLs also mean that storms that mature are more likely to produce tornadoes.
 
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