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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

KevinH said:
As someone who lives in the same part of the state as you do, I have also noticed this MANY times as well. Even with severe (non tornadic) storms, they most often seem to die once they “see” or get close to the AL/GA border.

So weird… but consistent lol
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I know. I live in the Atlanta metro area. Almost everytime it seems like storms give up and go home right after they pass into W GA. Can't tell you how many times I've hunkered down for bad weather only to get rain.

Definitely on the look out this time, though. It looks like whatever forms out west has a good shot at moving well into GA and even SC. Would like to hear other people's opinions on this topic too.
 
KevinH said:
As someone who lives in the same part of the state as you do, I have also noticed this MANY times as well. Even with severe (non tornadic) storms, they most often seem to die once they “see” or get close to the AL/GA border.

So weird… but consistent lol
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A combo of usually more distance from the best forcing/lift and the Florida peninsula impacting the best moisture flow. If you follow the surface flow you can see that West-central Georgia has some slightly southeast flow from over Florida which limits DP increase as the system approaches. Of course winds turn more south as the storm gets close, but there is less time to get a "primed" atmosphere and the storms usually arrive after dark which limits instability some.

There is often legit CAD in place which keeps surface instability much lower than further west as well.
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Here's a thought that I had recently and decided to share regarding this event:

I noticed that this upcoming event will either be bracketed by or occur on several tornado outbreak anniversaries:

First up, today is the 35th anniversary of the tornado outbreak that produced the Hesston, Kansas, F5--I made a post about it over on the "Tornado Anniversaries" thread.

Second, Friday also happens to be the 1st anniversary of the outbreak that was predicted to mainly affect Arkansas, but ended up also notably impacting Ohio as well (to an even larger extent than Arkansas did, in fact!).

And finally, this upcoming Tuesday will be the 100th anniversary of the tornado outbreak that produced the infamous Tri-State Tornado (still the deadliest single tornado in U.S. history to this day).

And given the way things look to be trending with this system, it looks like there could very well end up being yet another tornado day that's at least worthy of note in mid-March.

Now let all that sink in...
 
Tennie said:
Here's a thought that I had recently and decided to share regarding this event:

I noticed that this upcoming event will either be bracketed by or occur on several tornado outbreak anniversaries:

First up, today is the 35th anniversary of the tornado outbreak that produced the Hesston, Kansas, F5--I made a post about it over on the "Tornado Anniversaries" thread.

Second, Friday also happens to be the 1st anniversary of the outbreak that was predicted to mainly affect Arkansas, but ended up also notably impacting Ohio as well (to an even larger extent than Arkansas did, in fact!).

And finally, this upcoming Tuesday will be the 100th anniversary of the tornado outbreak that produced the infamous Tri-State Tornado (still the deadliest single tornado in U.S. history to this day).

And given the way things look to be trending with this system, it looks like there could very well end up being yet another tornado day that's at least worthy of note in mid-March.

Now let all that sink in...
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Yes, I remember that. I was 9 and lived in Emporia, KS and it was a pretty muggy day for that time of year.
 
I would not be surprised to see a 15 hatch moderate upgrade for tornadoes in the Memphis/Jackson/Birmingham corridor for tomorrow night given the extreme wind fields modeled and the fact that models are really trying to convect in that environment, but I agree with the SPC in holding off til one of the later D1 updates tomorrow to make absolutely sure confidence is high enough that things WILL actually convect in what should be a fairly capped increasing EML environment in the pre-dawn
 
First thanks for letting me join this board. As soon as I ask this question yall will realize I am no where near yalls level of weather knowledge LOL. I live in the Jackson. Ms metro area and based on what I see now we need to be on "high alert" starting ABOUT 7PM Friday until ABOUT 7PM Saturday with particular attention to the morning and early afternoon on Saturday. Is this a reasonable synopsis for our area ?

edited to add: I'll have my weather radio, TV and computer focused on weather the entire time of course
 
Timbertrader said:
First thanks for letting me join this board. As soon as I ask this question yall will realize I am no where near yalls level of weather knowledge LOL. I live in the Jackson. Ms metro area and based on what I see now we need to be on "high alert" starting ABOUT 7PM Friday until ABOUT 7PM Saturday with particular attention to the morning and early afternoon on Saturday. Is this a reasonable synopsis for our area ?

edited to add: I'll have my weather radio, TV and computer focused on weather the entire time of course
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Welcome! And I would say yes that's a pretty solid summary!
 
Equus said:
Spann is extremely reserved and careful with wording; the death toll on 4/27 has left him with a lot of unwarranted self blame that has made him extremely concerned with public messaging during severe events. Almost never uses the V word, so seeing him go with that two days before the event is unsettling. First time I've gotten storm anxiety personally in a very long time
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V word?
 
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