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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

UncleJuJu98 said:
15z rap is in range for Saturday afternoon. And it's bad like the nam and globals
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Noticing some speed differences between models, for example, RAP vs NAM. NAM has it moving pretty slowly, whereas RAP has activity further east. NAM's precip depiction also looks pretty funky.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Getting close to day 2 update time … think Memphis area mid south gets expanded moderate risk , with a 15 tornado hatched ?
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I honestly do. I'm hoping SPC mentions more about the Friday night risk.
 
Regarding the hrrr, the only issues with it are its tendencies to overmix surface moisture when there’s a lot of radiative heating, and consequently causes it to underestimate instability values.

In terms of its convective parameters, It’s a bit of a supercell printer, but actually does a good job in depicting how much convective actually initiates.

If anything it actually ends up underestimating convective coverage at times.
 
Equus said:
The Friday night risk has me more concerned with loss of life than the Saturday one does; if we get pre-dawn supercells as seems increasingly likely, those are the ones that take people off guard
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Yeah I feel like the tornado risk for Friday/Friday overnight is getting overshadowed by how insane Saturday looks. Friday night has serious potential for numerous tornados.
 
UpperLevelLOL said:
Yeah I feel like the tornado risk for Friday/Friday overnight is getting overshadowed by how insane Saturday looks. Friday night has serious potential for numerous tornados.
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Especially the further north 60 degree dew points reach. The seems to be the only limiting factor. Though, others in this thread have pointed out tornadoes can't be ruled out even with mid 50s dew points.
 
Equus said:
The Friday night risk has me more concerned with loss of life than the Saturday one does; if we get pre-dawn supercells as seems increasingly likely, those are the ones that take people off guard
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Would not surprise me in the slightest by the time we get within the 12hour range of Friday night, a 15% hatched tornado drivin risk is issued.

The southern end of the dry line away from the surface low has the far better kinematics and weaker forcing, so a semi discrete mode with the potential for strong/perhaps violent? tornadoes is looking more plausible.
 
Lunch break. Nothing I’ve seen changes the impending event on Saturday and Friday is dangerous looking too! From a human standpoint, I understand why we don’t evoke certain events. However from data point of view, they ARE valid data points that should be usable analogs if the event warrants. While there are inevitably variations, the pattern mimics some of the worst situations Dixie has ever had, and I don’t say that lightly. The HRRR coming into focus today should give more clarity, but so far, it seems clear the weight of the evidence we have available currently says residents in the Deep South should prepare for a nearly unprecedented setup. Hope for much better. But prepare for the high end ceiling. Which is admittedly very high.
 
lake.effect said:
If there's any silver lining to Saturday's potential at all, it's that the highest risk area is centered around a relatively low population density area with few large cities. Obviously, there are many towns and cities in risk zone, but the probability of a direct hit on a major population center is lower simply due to population density.
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The problem with Ms is there are literally dozens and dozens of small towns with populations less than 400 that are only a few miles apart.

Amory and Smithville ms for example.

Amory has over 3k people, and the EF5 in 11 barely missed it on the Northside, but it hit Smithville that's only about 8 miles away. It had a population of less than 900 at the time.
Really the only place in ms where you can go miles and miles and see nothing, is in the delta.
 
Smokedevil said:
The problem with Ms is there are literally dozens and dozens of small towns with populations less than 400 that are only a few miles apart.

Amory and Smithville ms for example.

Amory has over 3k people, and the EF5 in 11 barely missed it on the Northside, but it hit Smithville that's only about 8 miles away. It had a population of less than 900 at the time.
Really the only place in ms where you can go miles and miles and see nothing, is in the delta.
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High pop. woes vs disparate pop. woes. Both are terrible in their own ways with regard to emergency response. A tornado hitting 5 or 6 small towns far apart in a rural area is an absolute headache, not to mention huge problem for getting people to hospitals in time.
 
12Z CSU probs. Brings things back west a bit. Still has that southern bias. Not sure I buy either of those trends, but that hatched aggregate area seems about right for where I'd put a MDT.
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Clancy said:
12Z CSU probs. Brings things back west a bit. Still has that southern bias. Not sure I buy either of those trends, but that hatched aggregate area seems about right for where I'd put a MDT.
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It's just because of the likely max parameter bubble. The 60% area looks like it's actually nudged very slightly north from overnight if anything. That overall 45% hatched on the combined aggregate looks like a good MDT risk imo. That's what I would draw if I were doing the afternoon D3 update.
 
From Meg.
They aren't pulling the trigger hard, YET.



- Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected from
Friday night through Saturday night, with the potential for
some severe thunderstorms both days. There continues to be some
uncertainty regarding the timing and severity of these storms,
so continue to monitor the forecast for the end of the week
 
The main question for Tennessee (and even more so north MS/AL) for tomorrow overnight is storm coverage and ability to Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency through the cap that will be there, in addition to large scale ascent weakening with time as the first wave pulls north. There is no doubt that the conditional potential is for one or more long-tracked strong tornadoes. The confidence in number of storms to necessitate the 15% risk contour can't be ruled out on the upcoming D2 but may not be there. They've already accounted for the conditional intensity. It's about confidence in coverage and confidence in overall outcome that would trigger it at this point.
 
cbmatt2408 said:
I am new to the board, and am very amateur in my meteorological knowledge. As someone who lives on the central Georgia/Alabama border, what is the main reason why these things seem to die off at the border in general? Obviously there are examples where it breaks through, there have been 8-9 confirmed tornadoes in Troup County in the last 15 years, but it seems as if they fade quickly. Is it the Florida peninsula inhibiting moisture return, or a mix of things? Thanks, really enjoying the discussion on this one and we are still getting prepared as this one looks like it wont fade as quickly as others.
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As someone who lives in the same part of the state as you do, I have also noticed this MANY times as well. Even with severe (non tornadic) storms, they most often seem to die once they “see” or get close to the AL/GA border.

So weird… but consistent lol
 
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