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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Spann is extremely reserved and careful with wording; the death toll on 4/27 has left him with a lot of unwarranted self blame that has made him extremely concerned with public messaging during severe events. Almost never uses the V word, so seeing him go with that two days before the event is unsettling. First time I've gotten storm anxiety personally in a very long time
 
Equus said:
Spann is extremely reserved and careful with wording; the death toll on 4/27 has left him with a lot of unwarranted self blame that has made him extremely concerned with public messaging during severe events. Almost never uses the V word, so seeing him go with that two days before the event is unsettling. First time I've gotten storm anxiety personally in a very long time
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If this was the plains I’d be more worried about a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency…
 
Bulkshear said:
How do you feel this is trending for middle TN? Do you feel the long trackers could make it up this way or more relegated to MS and AL?
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I do see where middle Tennessee gets in on the action but probably more so on Saturday than Friday. I can see the Level 4 Moderate Risk getting expanded at least to south of Nashville.
 
ColdFront said:
Yeah. I would definetly recommend TN folks be tuned into Fred’s comments & station
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Yeah I am. I take what he said last night very seriously. So much so I am trying to get my church to open up because it has a full basement. Then I have parents that are refusing to go if they open it up. I just don’t want to be over reacting here.
 
3K NAM through 6pm CST Saturday. Even with its linear bias, NAM is clearly showing discrete tornado tracks.
This is the last frame of the last model run, discrete cells can be seen in the 2nd image (static), continuing to make their way northeast, with additional cells initiating to the southwest near the end of the run.
 

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Kds86z said:
I am thinking this happening on a Saturday could be worse? More people home..
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Hard to say. There's disagreement about who is/how many are safer on average btw weekdays and weekends. Some folks will be returning from their jobs in secure and sturdy buildings to their vulnerable mobile homes. Others might work outdoors but be at home with a basement nearby on the weekends.
 
MichelleH said:
My first reaction to seeing the D3 this morning I can't write on this forum. And then I had to write a FB post explaining that no matter what the map said, we are STILL under a significant threat. I'm glad Fred explained the possible rationale for the southward plummet of the bullseye, because I couldn't see a reason for it. Hopefully, this doesn't add to the complacency of any normies who see it shared on social media, like your coworkers. Already tried to explain to someone that a little rain is not going to kill the tornado threat in N. AL but realized it's not worth my time.
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Honestly, the terminology used in SPC messaging is not very good. "Moderate" doesn't sound very threatening to a layperson who only follows weather information casually. I'm glad James Spann always mentions the level number, because Level 4 out of 5 sounds a lot more urgent.
 
Some CAMS (HRRR, FV3) seem to be firing super early convection on Saturday which basically leaves an uncapped warm sector and a cold pool that then mitigates the severe threat. Not a trend, but that could be a failure mode for Saturday
 
If there's any silver lining to Saturday's potential at all, it's that the highest risk area is centered around a relatively low population density area with few large cities. Obviously, there are many towns and cities in risk zone, but the probability of a direct hit on a major population center is lower simply due to population density.
 
UpperLevelLOL said:
Some CAMS (HRRR, FV3) seem to be firing super early convection on Saturday which basically leaves an uncapped warm sector and a cold pool that then mitigates the severe threat. Not a trend, but that could be a failure mode for Saturday
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I would point you to Fred’s post earlier on this. Not saying this couldn’t happen or isn’t a fail mode, but it’s also a bit of a quirk in the CAMS this far out
 
Bulkshear said:
How far east do you think the main threat for Saturday will make it?
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As far as squall line, it'll be into central and eastern Georgia. Now supercell and tornado threat, that'll probably extend into Western Georgia (west of Atlanta). This is definitely gonna be widespread threat. Questions regarding about main storm mode type remain but it does appear we'll be dealing with more supercell potential than solid squall line. Hope that helps.
 
ColdFront said:
I would point you to Fred’s post earlier on this. Not saying this couldn’t happen or isn’t a fail mode, but it’s also a bit of a quirk in the CAMS this far out
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I mean yea, but I’m looking at both models and I straight up fail to see what OP is even talking about, there’s no cold pool to be seen and the OWS cap is actually fairly stout on both models.
 
JPWX said:
I do see where middle Tennessee gets in on the action but probably more so on Saturday than Friday. I can see the Level 4 Moderate Risk getting expanded at least to south of Nashville.
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Getting close to day 2 update time … think Memphis area mid south gets expanded moderate risk , with a 15 tornado hatched ?
 
lake.effect said:
If there's any silver lining to Saturday's potential at all, it's that the highest risk area is centered around a relatively low population density area with few large cities. Obviously, there are many towns and cities in risk zone, but the probability of a direct hit on a major population center is lower simply due to population density.
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The HRRR tends to be over aggressive with convection, and in light of the EML expected to be in place, I don't think this is a realistic situation. Even if taken at face value, the HRRR has the convection lifting out of the warm sector by 12z
 
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