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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Clancy said:
Welcome! I'll leave more precise answers to the mets and other various mega-smarties in here, but yes, early-day rainfall theoretically could (and in many previous cases, has) reduce instability and thus severe risk some, but quite a few of the models aren't showing the messy solution we'd wanna see for that. Using the NAM purely for visual example, we see relatively little getting in the way of the warm sector on Saturday.
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I think a lot of that is due to capping as well. Going to be hard for any unassisted convection to stay strong in that kind of EML regime.
 
Communication is always complicated, made even more so by today's social media environment. The Cry Wolf Syndrome is worse than ever with all the weather hypesters and their viral content. To be fair, we live in a region with a lot of poorly educated people and/or people with crazy lives (working multiple jobs, extreme poverty, etc.). Many don't have the capacity to understand weather threats, and then add on the madness randomly appearing in their phone feeds, and it's no wonder so many are clueless and confused.

I realize these aren't the people being bashed in the discussion. Yes, many are clueless but capable of not being so clueless, and that is terribly frustrating. I'm a college teacher, so I know how this goes. The frustration with students who are capable but don't try versus those who truly aren't capable.
 
Something to consider - this week, all three local school systems are on Spring Break (Huntsville City, Madison City, Madison County, plus all the private schools that follow the same schedule). I'm sure there are others. Many of those people are at the beach all week and will likely be driving back up through Alabama on Saturday. I-65 north will be a parking lot.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
More sbcape. Right now your running widespread 1500-2500, which is high but it can go higher.
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While those fairly aggressive values Saturday afternoon look about right, I would bet you the LLJ during the evening might make the currently-forecast CAPE across AL even higher than presently modeled.
 
ColdFront said:
I think a lot of that is due to capping as well. Going to be hard for any unassisted convection to stay strong in that kind of EML regime.
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Yeah, at this stage I'm crossing my fingers for no cap and messy convection, but I'm not sure I'm gonna get my wish.
 
JPWX said:
Yep
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I’m the person who shares weather/safety info at my office and I always make sure to include the trusty “cupcake watch vs. cupcake warning” meme for exactly that reason. (A lot of people in my office aren’t American and are just here on short-term fellowships though so it’s not really their fault)
 
Parker Copeland said:
that cap/eml Is one reason why I feel our mode won't squall out like the not official runs people had made, if Sat doesn't introduce a fail mode then an/e all hand on deck type deal shall be needed
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We could definitely see a QLCS come late evening, but there's a substantial chance it'll be a broken line and not a typical squall line.
 
Clancy said:
While those fairly aggressive values Saturday afternoon look about right, I would bet you the LLJ during the evening might make the currently-forecast CAPE across AL even higher than presently modeled.
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Yeah that's what I'm worried about. Not too often you have this kind of setup. And with how Friday is uptrending some, I hope Saturday does not. We are already at eye popping composites, let's not go any higher. Even a bump up of 500j for areas would be rather significant.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Yeah that's what I'm worried about. Not too often you have this kind of setup. And with how Friday is uptrending some, I hope Saturday does not. We are already at eye popping composites, let's not go any higher
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Speaking of the setup, this from Alan Gerard.
1741799327987.png
 
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