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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Why not get in on this I guess. Yeah these parameters definitely are upper echelon, as well as the Synoptics at play. I think it’s definitely worth while to look at a couple of fail modes at hand, a big one being overconvection at intitiation as well as the potential for an overall messy mode. With these setups you generally want a slightly stronger EML until 18z to limit these factors. While I don’t think a complete washout is likely, it’s definitely possible some of the risk area may get slightly over turned. Regardless yes, all around it looks like a high end set up. Just wanted to shed *some* light on some potential limiting factors.
 
Joshua Evans said:
Why not get in on this I guess. Yeah these parameters definitely are upper echelon, as well as the Synoptics at play. I think it’s definitely worth while to look at a couple of fail modes at hand, a big one being overconvection at intitiation as well as the potential for an overall messy mode. With these setups you generally want a slightly stronger EML until 18z to limit these factors. While I don’t think a complete washout is likely, it’s definitely possible some of the risk area may get slightly over turned. Regardless yes, all around it looks like a high end set up. Just wanted to shed *some* light on some potential limiting factors.
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Welcome to the discussion
 
Joshua Evans said:
Why not get in on this I guess. Yeah these parameters definitely are upper echelon, as well as the Synoptics at play. I think it’s definitely worth while to look at a couple of fail modes at hand, a big one being overconvection at intitiation as well as the potential for an overall messy mode. With these setups you generally want a slightly stronger EML until 18z to limit these factors. While I don’t think a complete washout is likely, it’s definitely possible some of the risk area may get slightly over turned. Regardless yes, all around it looks like a high end set up. Just wanted to shed *some* light on some potential limiting factors.
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Welcome! These are indeed some factors to be considered. The Euro, for example, has some over-convection going on, though Fred has discussed how it can sometimes be over-zealous with regard to that aspect. There will be fairly strong parameters in play regardless, but best case would be a stubborn rain shield muting the threat, especially over the biggest area of concern in AL/GA.
 
Joshua Evans said:
Why not get in on this I guess. Yeah these parameters definitely are upper echelon, as well as the Synoptics at play. I think it’s definitely worth while to look at a couple of fail modes at hand, a big one being overconvection at intitiation as well as the potential for an overall messy mode. With these setups you generally want a slightly stronger EML until 18z to limit these factors. While I don’t think a complete washout is likely, it’s definitely possible some of the risk area may get slightly over turned. Regardless yes, all around it looks like a high end set up. Just wanted to shed *some* light on some potential limiting factors.
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Key word here is. You said. Potential
 
So if the models are correct, this severe weather/tornado season will open with a boom (as opposed to a bang at the end), right?
 
In looking at everything this morning, I believe Saturday morning will be the most crucial time period that determines what happens Satirday afternoon and evening...I know this has already been discussed. There is one thing that stands out to me- the poaition of the meso/2ndry low that pops up in the Tennessee Valley. There is a reason why the models are showing this, not only because of the trailing shortwave moving closer, increasing vorticity but also because of a surface boundary that is likely to setup somewhere in north Alabama, which would likely enhance low level shear. If I had to outline an area that we are most likely see violent tornadoes it would be from Central Mississippi f like from Jackson Miss to Starkville and then northeast toward Gadsden and points south to around Clanton, Demopolis, back to Jackson.....for just a rough outline purposes.
I am not as sure about the points fuether north into Tennessee due to that boundry...as far as violent torandoes go. Also, some risk will spread further east into Georgia.
Now, if things look different by Saturday morning, that area will need to he adjusted...but based on what I see now, the Birmingham metro area could be in what eventually becomes the main event Saturday afternoon.

i know there is still some question to EML quality and spatial expansion, that I don't think will be an issue. Trends over the next 48 hours will be interesting as we get more sampling of the upper features and incoming parameters.
 
Atlantic said:
So if the models are correct, this severe weather/tornado season will open with a boom (as opposed to a bang at the end), right?
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I believe so. I think the general idea is that March and April (May????) have the potential set up to very be more active than usual regarding the number of events with events of varying degrees of intensity.

Just like with any severe season, being actively aware of the weather is just good practice. Be aware and prepare (as needed).
 
I have to admit, I'm not into this as much as I am into Tropical Cyclones (But I am slowly getting into Severe Weather and tornadoes as well) , but even this is giving me a bad feeling. My gut says this is something to watch and worry about.
 
Atlantic said:
I have to admit, I'm not into this as much as I am into Tropical Cyclones (But I am slowly getting into Severe Weather and tornadoes as well) , but even this is giving me a bad feeling. My gut says this is something to watch and worry about.
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Welcome to the club!

The best thing people can do is stay aware of the weather, and prepare accordingly.
 
As the NAM does get closer to Saturday I do want to remind everyone it has a pretty well known “colder” bias when it comes to thermals. I would encourage you to reference Fred’s post from last night. It’s also at the end of the NAM’s range and that historically has been unreliable until you get closer.

I’ve seen the NAM have a warm sector at 60 degrees in May the night before when real time obs are coming in showing 70 degrees already in place.
 
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