Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

I think you have 4/27 confused with another outbreak. The system did not move slowly. There were multiple rounds of storms, but the storms were not moving slowly and I also don't remember any historic flooding. At all.

prob, like I said my memory is bad

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I think you have 4/27 confused with another outbreak. The system did not move slowly. There were multiple rounds of storms, but the storms were not moving slowly and I also don't remember any historic flooding. At all.

There was some pretty bad flooding the day before if I remember correctly. In the Tennessee valley or Ohio valley one of those.

 

[Clancy]

I really don’t recall any flooding on 4/27/11. The system in the south was so subtly forced that there wasn’t a huge linear line that came through after the cells. Now the north had some heavy rains, but it wasn’t even close to historic

I think you have 4/27 confused with another outbreak. The system did not move slowly. There were multiple rounds of storms, but the storms were not moving slowly and I also don't remember any historic flooding. At all.

There was indeed quite a bit of flooding, but it was completely dwarfed in scale of destruction by the tornadoes that day. It mostly happened in Texas/Louisiana before 4/27 and up into the Ozarks, Tennessee and Kentucky. However, it wasn't a slow-mover by any means, it mostly a training thing.

2011 Super Outbreak - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

There was some pretty bad flooding the day before if I remember correctly. In the Tennessee valley or Ohio valley one of those.

ik AR had floods cuz the blobs of rain that sat over the area lol, had back to back mdts/highs I believe, storms just hit the same areas

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

 

[ColdFront]

There was indeed quite a bit of flooding, but it was completely dwarfed in scale of destruction by the tornadoes that day. It mostly happened in Texas/Louisiana before 4/27 and up into the Ozarks, Tennessee and Kentucky. However, it wasn't a slow-mover by any means, it mostly a training thing.

2011 Super Outbreak - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Thanks @Clancy I live in Kentucky so I knew there were some floods out west, but it wasn’t historic and not even close to something like the tornados that day or Helene.

 

[Bulkshear]

The main potential failure mode for Saturday until cam’s roll on is messy storm mode.

Interesting… Based of the model runs this is highly unlikely

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That's a absolute unit of a broken QCLS

 

[ColdFront]

That's a absolute unit of a broken QCLS

Which is why I don’t put stock into it at all.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Which is why I don’t put stock into it at all

I could see that happening, but I don't think models pick up on the OWS stuff too well, because we very well could be dealing with a few OFBs and other types of boundaries that give that subtle nudge to iniat convection ahead of that Unit. This is the mesoscale stuff we won't know until the HRRR gets into range or even the day of. Lots of questions still.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

I could see that happening, but I don't think models pick up on the OWS stuff too well, because we very well could be dealing with a few OFBs and other types of boundaries that give that subtle nudge to iniat convection ahead of that Unit. This is the mesoscale stuff we won't know until the HRRR gets into range or even the day of. Lots of questions still.

yup

 

[wx_guy]

The 21z SREF is running now and might have some insights for us.

 

[Brice W]

Which is why I don’t put stock into it at all.

I could see that happening, but I don't think models pick up on the OWS stuff too well, because we very well could be dealing with a few OFBs and other types of boundaries that give that subtle nudge to iniat convection ahead of that Unit. This is the mesoscale stuff we won't know until the HRRR gets into range or even the day of. Lots of questions still.

While it is highly unlikely, it’s not impossible. I would prepare for the worst. This to me seems to be the “too perfect” scenario. I think we will see plenty of convection of course. Just not in this fashion.

 

[Tanner]

I have officially deleted X/Twitter after today’s bout of “concerning” posts! Talk Weather it is!!

 

[Brice W]

I have officially deleted X/Twitter after today’s bout of “concerning” posts! Talk Weather it is!!

Stevie Wonder could’ve given you that information.

 

[Clancy]

I have officially deleted X/Twitter after today’s bout of “concerning” posts! Talk Weather it is!!

Looking into it

 

[Clancy]

The 21z SREF is running now and might have some insights for us.

One minor caveat I've noticed with the SREF is it can really struggle with the HSLC environments the South is used to. That said, I don't think that will be a problem here.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

While it is highly unlikely, it’s not impossible. I would prepare for the worst. This to me seems to be the “too perfect” scenario. I think we will see plenty of convection of course. Just not in this fashion.

We won't know really until the day of; or very close to the event. Don't count out the "too perfect scenario". It's just too early, I hope for the not so perfect scenario lol.

 

[Brice W]

They sure won’t be happy if they don’t get a pretty pink color on the outlook.

 

[ColdFront]

While it is highly unlikely, it’s not impossible. I would prepare for the worst. This to me seems to be the “too perfect” scenario. I think we will see plenty of convection of course. Just not in this fashion.

This isn’t even close to a too perfect scenario lol