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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

UncleJuJu98 said:
Id love to see the 15 analogs that it's basing that 25% bullseye over Birmingham with. I used to remember how to see each analog but I can't remember anymore.

**I found it lol

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Yeah that’s also the 4.16.98 analog…. It only produced 13 tornadoes for the state of TN including the states only F5 on official record. I believe that outbreak also had F3 and F4 tornadoes
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Id love to see the 15 analogs that it's basing that 25% bullseye over Birmingham with. I used to remember how to see each analog but I can't remember anymore.

**I found it lol

View attachment 34816
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Not a fan of those analogs. Lots of April events in there.
 
Bulkshear said:
Well since this is March hopefully the moisture return isn’t as pronounced as it would be a month later. Hopefully since this is early in the season the tornado potential could be limited just a bit since we are not in April.
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One would certainly hope, though the Deep South has had plenty of very nasty outbreaks in March, even with marginal thermodynamics.
 
Clancy said:
One would certainly hope, though the Deep South has had plenty of very nasty outbreaks in March, even with marginal thermodynamics.
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Yeah not going matter , we r only just bout 2 weeks away from April . Each model run has kept on increasing moisture ….
That’s concerning trend for sure with the dynamics we have to work with
 
One slight potential fly in the ointment as depicted on the 12Z GFS is that it's possible the trough reaches peak maturation/the main surface low peaks and begins to occlude a bit too early in the day on Friday. It deepens through 21Z and then begins to gradually fill, from 971mb at 21Z to 974mb at 03Z Saturday.

Don't get me wrong, that'd still be a powerhouse low, but generally to maximize low-level jet response and consequent enhancement of low-level backing/SRH, ideally you want the system deepening through the evening. This is seen with a lot of the bigger outbreaks (including 3/31/23, one of the things that had me quite bullish on it was the consistent model depiction of the low deepening or at least holding steady through 00Z 4/1).
 
CheeselandSkies said:
One slight potential fly in the ointment as depicted on the 12Z GFS is that it's possible the trough reaches peak maturation/the main surface low peaks and begins to occlude a bit too early in the day on Friday. It deepens through 21Z and then begins to gradually fill, from 971mb at 21Z to 974mb at 03Z Saturday.

Don't get me wrong, that'd still be a powerhouse low, but generally to maximize low-level jet response and consequent enhancement of low-level backing/SRH, ideally you want the system deepening through the evening. This is seen with a lot of the bigger outbreaks (including 3/31/23, one of the things that had me quite bullish on it was the consistent model depiction of the low deepening or at least holding steady through 00Z 4/1).
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Always possibility. Have t see. This mentioned till then…. But time will tell
 
CheeselandSkies said:
One slight potential fly in the ointment as depicted on the 12Z GFS is that it's possible the trough reaches peak maturation/the main surface low peaks and begins to occlude a bit too early in the day on Friday. It deepens through 21Z and then begins to gradually fill, from 971mb at 21Z to 974mb at 03Z Saturday.

Don't get me wrong, that'd still be a powerhouse low, but generally to maximize low-level jet response and consequent enhancement of low-level backing/SRH, ideally you want the system deepening through the evening. This is seen with a lot of the bigger outbreaks (including 3/31/23, one of the things that had me quite bullish on it was the consistent model depiction of the low deepening or at least holding steady through 00Z 4/1).
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Not even making the comparison but didn’t 4/3/74 feature a gradually filling low as the outbreak went into the evening?
 
ColdFront said:
Not even making the comparison but didn’t 4/3/74 feature a gradually filling low as the outbreak went into the evenin
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ColdFront said:
Not even making the comparison but didn’t 4/3/74 feature a gradually filling low as the outbreak went into the evening?
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I’ve never heard of this. I would actually like to know the answer to this question. Also just saying that this does seem to have a pretty high ceiling
 
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