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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Clancy said:
I've some questions about that as well, especially as the LLJ really gets cranking over the core of the Southeast on Saturday. GFS has moisture basically evaporating Saturday evening, but I'm not sure I buy it, considering what it looks like only hours earlier. Euro, for example, paints a different picture.
View attachment 34803View attachment 34805View attachment 34806View attachment 34807
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Makes me believe models are lagging behind on the moisture department, which would of course spell more trouble considering how bonkers the shear is lol.
 
KCweatherboy said:
I know I'm outside of the main risk area for now here in Kansas City, but we have a large temperature gradient forecasted for Friday. High of 74 with a low of 45 that evening. I know @JPWX mentions large temperature gradients when looking at events further out sometimes, so I'm curious what it looks like for other members of the forum.
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I got high Friday Memphis area 77
 
MichelleH said:
Unfortunately, the general public will likely pay LESS attention because most people have plans on the weekend and the weather is the last thing on their minds. I would like to say Alabama has learned its lesson with that, but it's been years since we've had a major outbreak that covers a wide area and many have become complacent. Not all - I know the ones with storm anxiety will watch it closely - but I'm worried many just won't be bothered to care. And if we have widespread power outages to accompany that...oof.
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Would you rather it come on a Saturday in the spring than say a Saturday in November when a large portion of the state is more focused on a football game?
 
KCweatherboy said:
I know I'm outside of the main risk area for now here in Kansas City, but we have a large temperature gradient forecasted for Friday. High of 74 with a low of 45 that evening. I know @JPWX mentions large temperature gradients when looking at events further out sometimes, so I'm curious what it looks like for other members of the forum.
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We're getting into that time of year especially in the Deep South where you can't use that anymore. However, there is a 17 degree difference (80 Friday then 63 Sunday) here in Smithville.
 
MichelleH said:
Unfortunately, the general public will likely pay LESS attention because most people have plans on the weekend and the weather is the last thing on their minds. I would like to say Alabama has learned its lesson with that, but it's been years since we've had a major outbreak that covers a wide area and many have become complacent. Not all - I know the ones with storm anxiety will watch it closely - but I'm worried many just won't be bothered to care. And if we have widespread power outages to accompany that...oof.
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In Tuscaloosa specifically it’s spring break for the k-12 schools and a lot of families will be traveling back to town after spending the week doing whatever. So that’s not a pleasant thought having so many on the road and not paying attention.
 
I'm fixing to go have lunch and mentally prepare myself on how best to message this upcoming threat.
 
I was just checking the last high risk threat we had in Alabama the March 25th 2021 event and this event Saturday in Alabama, the soundings are in general around the same areas (West blocton and then Birmingham) . Interesting seeing some of the similarities on the composites.

Below March 25th 2021

Sounding.png

Below this Saturday

2025030912_GFS_153_32.7,-87.87_winter_mu.png
 
Clancy said:
Considering how notorious that area is, no surprise it shows up on the analog data!
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Seems like north Louisiana usually gets included in the area of high threat ahead of Dixie severe weather setups but the worst most often materializes east of the MS River in that corridor from south/central MS through central/north AL.

Louisiana is kind of similar to Georgia in usually avoiding the brunt of outbreaks.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I was just checking the last high risk threat we had in Alabama the March 25th 2021 event and this event Saturday in Alabama, the soundings are in general around the same areas (West blocton and then Birmingham) . Interesting seeing some of the similarities on the composites.

Below March 25th 2021

View attachment 34809

Below this Saturday

View attachment 34810
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2021: You will get TORNADO :mad:

2025 Hazard: You will get RAIN :)
 
Rapideswx said:
Seems like north Louisiana usually gets included in the area of high threat ahead of Dixie severe weather setups but the worst most often materializes east of the MS River in that corridor from south/central MS through central/north AL.

Louisiana is kind of similar to Georgia in usually avoiding the brunt of outbreaks.
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Indeed. It's no surefire bet, but I notice that tends to happen fairly often. For the past several setups, it seems like it's had mostly to do with the LLJ not getting going until things have moved east, but I'm sure there are other contributing factors.
 
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