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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Wow. WVTM 13 in central Alabama is already declaring next Saturday a weather impact day. I've never seen that before being a week out and all. (Maybe April 28th 2014 event I might have)

www.wvtm13.com

Destruction in Alabama: Deadly tornadoes obliterate buildings, homes and trees

WVTM 13 was live with team coverage for more than nine hours on Saturday during two dozen Central Alabama Tornado Warnings.
www.wvtm13.com www.wvtm13.com
 
Bulkshear said:
I’m not so sure this won’t matter all that much. The disruption from the first system should be minimal since the storm is hugging the coast. The moisture should be able to still advect northward. How far will it make it? The power of this storm could overcome these obstacles or am I off base here?
Click to expand...
It's enough disruption to cause the caliber of this event to go down some, I think in general areas in the deep south are in for a nasty two days (Ark/La/Tex and MS/AL). Either which away of how bad this system will be; This event tops what the last events ceiling could have been. You don't want this event to reach it's potential.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
It's enough disruption to cause the caliber of this event to go down some, I think in general areas in the deep south are in for a nasty two days (Ark/La/Tex and MS/AL). Either which away of how bad this system will be; This event tops what the last events ceiling could have been. You don't want this event to reach it's potential.
Click to expand...
Newest GFS isn’t showing much moving across the SE on 3/13….
 

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UncleJuJu98 said:
Wow. WVTM 13 in central Alabama is already declaring next Saturday a weather impact day. I've never seen that before being a week out and all. (Maybe April 28th 2014 event I might have)

www.wvtm13.com

Destruction in Alabama: Deadly tornadoes obliterate buildings, homes and trees

WVTM 13 was live with team coverage for more than nine hours on Saturday during two dozen Central Alabama Tornado Warnings.
www.wvtm13.com www.wvtm13.com
Click to expand...

The fact Jason is doing that this far out does not give me the warm fuzzies.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Warm sector is still pinched a bit once the system moves east, At least for Alabama and Georgia. 7 days out though so we will see how that evolves. Still lots of moving pieces.
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Georgia gets spared about 95% of the time by either the wedge or simple chronology, i.e. storms arriving at 4 A.M. Hoping this'll be the case once more.
 
I thought 0Z GFS had introduced capping issues as a failure mode for the northern end of Friday's setup...then I realized I was looking at the frames valid for 18Z.

Northward moisture transport is extremely impressive, upper 50s as far north as southern Wisconsin with solid (perhaps even excessive, some forecast sounding profiles are saturated up to 700mb) depth. The area of 60s further south still isn't depicted as super wide, but wide enough.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I thought 0Z GFS had introduced capping issues as a failure mode for the northern end of Friday's setup...then I realized I was looking at the frames valid for 18Z.

Northward moisture transport is extremely impressive, upper 50s as far north as southern Wisconsin with solid (perhaps even excessive, some profiles are saturated up to 700mb) depth. The area of 60s further south still isn't depicted as super wide, but wide enough.
Click to expand...
funnnn
 
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