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Severe Weather 2025

CheeselandSkies said:
Not sure where you're seeing that. Highest values on the 18Z GFS valid for 21Z (roughly peak heating) Friday are around 2,800 j/kg, over Louisiana. Generally in the 1,500-2000 range over the rest of the MS/AR/MO warm sector. I've stopped paying much attention to the exact numbers this far out, since so much changes from run to run depending on how the moisture acts.

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It was on the soundings, I pulled up soundings in south and part of west central Mississippi. Had a 3100 and 3300 SBCape in that area lol Screenshot_2025-03-07-19-02-49-93_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpgScreenshot_2025-03-07-19-02-21-68_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
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@tennessee storm chaser you have sparked an idea I can also add to the severe weather project I'm working on. Listing all the percentages during the Day 4-8 Outlooks. Not sure how I'll do that pre 2010, but I'll figure it out.
 
I'm also glad I picked next Friday to meet up with my EMA director again. Perfect timing no doubt.
 
Okay. So I know we are looking at late next week thru next weekend for this potential threat. Just from the 18z GFS standpoint, it does appear the potential exists for multiple rounds of storms from Saturday thru Sunday as first lobe lifts north then you get the main trough itself pulling out. Here's a sounding I pulled over Western MS for Saturday. I don't look at the CAPE values much on the Global models because I know they don't do that well forecasting CAPE this far out. However, I did make a key exception this go round. For the GFS to see more than 1500 CAPE this far out is really something. You just don't see it happen very often especially out of the GFS.
 

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JPWX said:
Okay. So I know we are looking at late next week thru next weekend for this potential threat. Just from the 18z GFS standpoint, it does appear the potential exists for multiple rounds of storms from Saturday thru Sunday as first lobe lifts north then you get the main trough itself pulling out. Here's a sounding I pulled over Western MS for Saturday. I don't look at the CAPE values much on the Global models because I know they don't do that well forecasting CAPE this far out. However, I did make a key exception this go round. For the GFS to see more than 1500 CAPE this far out is really something. You just don't see it happen very often especially out of the GFS.
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How often do these multi-trough, lobe-y situations happen for us in the South, to the best of your memory? Aside from a few situations, like a handful of summertime zonal flow-related events, the ones I think of over the last couple years are usually a single, fairly well-defined trough ejecting out east or northeast.
 
Clancy said:
How often do these multi-trough, lobe-y situations happen for us in the South, to the best of your memory? Aside from a few situations, like a handful of summertime zonal flow-related events, the ones I think of over the last couple years are usually a single, fairly well-defined trough ejecting out east or northeast.
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I'm gonna let someone smarter than me fully answer that because I honestly have no idea.
 
Clancy said:
How often do these multi-trough, lobe-y situations happen for us in the South, to the best of your memory? Aside from a few situations, like a handful of summertime zonal flow-related events, the ones I think of over the last couple years are usually a single, fairly well-defined trough ejecting out east or northeast.
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“Lobe-y” LOL
 
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