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Severe Weather 2025

UncleJuJu98 said:
This is pretty neat, definitely a lot in Mississippi and Alabama.
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I will never understand why a Tornado Emergency wasn't issued for Smithville during April 27th. That has bothered me a lot.
 
JPWX said:
Yeah. I've thought about that as well.
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It was blatantly obvious what kind of environment was present on that day. JAN had no qualms issuing a TORE for Philadelphia. I’m just not sure what MEG was thinking. Same thing with their survey of New Wren (which could’ve yielded a tornado emergency in its own right)
 
I love how the 18Z GFS casually has a two day severe weather outbreak over Mississippi with high CAPE for March standards. Just lovely. Usually when you see that supercell composite at around 15-20+ that's not good. Too far out to bite yet. But definitely eye raising.

Keep this signal up and a day 6 or possibly 7 risk outline will come out in the next day or two.
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
I love how the 18Z GFS casually has a two day severe weather outbreak over Mississippi with high CAPE for March standards. Just lovely. Usually when you see that supercell composite at around 15-20+ that's not good. Too far out to bite yet. But definitely eye raising.

Keep this signal up and a day 6 or possibly 7 risk outline will come out in the next day or two.
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18z is a big tornado outbreak over big area ….ouch
 
Of course, direct comparisons at this stage are meaningless, but the 18Z GFS verbatim is a setup that almost perfectly aligns with some of the oft-cited years I've seen such as 1996 and 2006, with a significant mid-MS Valley setup presenting itself early in the season. It also falls just four days shy of the 100th anniversary of a certain other mid-MS Valley event...
 
Looking at the 18Z GFS, I wonder how capped the entire warm sector will be? Especially with the upper level support not completely overspreading the warm sector at peak heating to cool and lift the cap.

That subtle forcing though, especially on that prominent dryline could yield a few monster cells.

Alabama looks pretty capped out. Although it is too early to even focus on capping.
 
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ColdFront said:
Looking at the 18Z GFS, I wonder how capped the entire warm sector will be? Especially with the upper level support not completely overspreading the warm sector at peak heating to cool and lift the cap.

That subtle forcing though, especially on that prominent dryline could yield a few monster cells.
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Wind fields and parameters scream super cells with spacing also. Not good
 
Got a question for @CheeselandSkies or @Clancy when's the last time yallve seen globals put up 3000-3500 j of sbcape in mid March for the deep south, usually I associate those values for mid to late April lol. I know things are bound to change but that seems unusually high, heck the March high risks in 2021 where 1500-2000 j of sbcape. That March 25th one may have been higher I can't fully remember.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Got a question for @CheeselandSkies or @Clancy when's the last time yallve seen globals put up 3000-3500 j of sbcape in mid March for the deep south, usually I associate those values for mid to late April lol. I know things are bound to change but that seems unusually high, heck the March high risks in 2021 where 1500-2000 j of sbcape
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Been awhile ….the Super Tuesday outbreak back 08 February was similar cape values all way to Tennessee
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Been awhile ….the Super Tuesday outbreak back 08 February was similar cape values all way to Tennessee
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We've probably had some events since then that have reached around similar levels I just don't remember many, I've always associated 3000+ with mid to late April here in the deep south (excluding coastal area in Lousianna and Texas.)
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Got a question for @CheeselandSkies or @Clancy when's the last time yallve seen globals put up 3000-3500 j of sbcape in mid March for the deep south, usually I associate those values for mid to late April lol. I know things are bound to change but that seems unusually high, heck the March high risks in 2021 where 1500-2000 j of sbcape. That March 25th one may have been higher I can't fully remember.
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Some of the rolling fork model runs had cape that high on a few runs but backed off. That was more late March.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Got a question for @CheeselandSkies or @Clancy when's the last time yallve seen globals put up 3000-3500 j of sbcape in mid March for the deep south, usually I associate those values for mid to late April lol. I know things are bound to change but that seems unusually high, heck the March high risks in 2021 where 1500-2000 j of sbcape. That March 25th one may have been higher I can't fully remember.
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Not sure where you're seeing that. Highest values on the 18Z GFS valid for 21Z (roughly peak heating) Friday are around 2,800 j/kg, over Louisiana. Generally in the 1,500-2000 range over the rest of the MS/AR/MO warm sector. I've stopped paying much attention to the exact numbers this far out, since so much changes from run to run depending on how the moisture acts.

Screenshot 2025-03-07 185241.png
 
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