2/15/25 SE Severe Threat

[cg9450]

These storms in western tn gonna drop?

Just... decided to turn into severe thunderstorms lol

 

[JPWX]

Looks like Storm-NET was right-on identifying the Memphis threat a couple hours ahead of time. For the next 3 hours, the main threat zones (according to it) is central Louisiana and north Mississippi/SW Tennessee.




View attachment 33860

Don't like that

 

[Clancy]

New Tornado Watch for TN/KY forthcoming.

Mesoscale Discussion 0100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Areas affected...western Tennessee and southwestern Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 8...

Valid 160009Z - 160145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues within WW008. Threat will
continue downstream into portions of Middle Tennessee and Western
Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms has shown an uptick in
intensity over the last hour across the Arkansas/Tennessee border.
Line embedded supercells are observed, with activity ahead of the
main line also exhibiting rotation. The low level jet, with axis
currently from central LA to middle TN/southern KY, is progged to
continue strengthening through the evening, with low level shear
becoming more favorable. This strong southerly flow has also ushered
in deeper moisture and a more favorable air mass across western
Tennessee, steadily approaching southern Kentucky.

Given the progress of the main line, maintenance of individual cells
ahead of the line will be difficult. However, deep layer shear of
50-55 kts will continue to support line embedded mesocyclones and
potential for damaging wind and tornadoes. This threat is spreading
eastward and will likely necessitate a downstream watch into
southern Kentucky soon.

..Thornton/Hart.. 02/16/2025

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 100

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[kcyalater]

gonna be a weird night i think

 

[Clancy]

TOR directly in The Hole™.
(Seriously though we need a radar site at the ArkLaMiss junction)

 

[cg9450]

Bit northeast of Memphis, TN

 

[cg9450]

TOR directly in The Hole™.
(Seriously though we need a radar site at the ArkLaMiss junction)
View attachment 33861

gotta love the Little Rock radar site nearly 100 miles away, Hole indeed

 

[SmokeEater]

New tornado watch for S KY and C TN.

 

[Kds86z]

Are we just waiting for things to hit the fan? Just not sure what’s gonna happen lol

 

[treypops]

There are a couple of discrete cells crossing the river in the MS delta that are gonna be trouble if they stay out in front of the line.

 

[cg9450]

Are we just waiting for things to hit the fan? Just not sure what’s gonna happen lol

It might be hitting the fan already down in Arkansas.

 

[Clancy]

TOR NE of Memphis.

 

[Ledian]

It might be hitting the fan already down in Arkansas.

Not liking the couplet on that thing

 

[Jason Mills]

The TOR that’s NE of Memphis looked like it had a TDS for a scan or two, but it’s too noisy. Most likely junk from its inflow.

 

[cg9450]

Not liking the couplet on that thing

Next scan has it falling apart

 

[AJS]

There are a couple of discrete cells crossing the river in the MS delta that are gonna be trouble if they stay out in front of the line.

Lord have mercy, please spare Rolling Fork…

 

[treypops]

Next scan has it falling apart

These spinners along the line don't have much of a life expectancy.

 

[Ledian]

I'm now keeping an eye on the storm approaching Greenville

 

[Jason Mills]

The cell west of Vicksburg probably is going to need a warning soon. It’s in a radar hole but it’s had a consistent mesocyclone and a BWER.

 

[cg9450]

Next scan has it falling apart

wellllllllllllll about that