2/15/25 SE Severe Threat

[SmokeEater]

Hate to be that guy, but the MCD includes Rolling Fork.....

Pointed right at Rolling Fork....

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Nice.

 

[Atlantic]

The supercell that Reed is chasing may put down the first tornado of this event.

 

[Atlantic]

 

[cg9450]

Is that a CC on dyersburg?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The HRRR has trended with a more broken line on the current model run.

 

[treypops]

Spoke a little too soon my friend

Meh, I was talking about discreet stuff. Always a chance of spin ups in the QLCS which is what we're seeing. That storm near dyersburg was spinning but not very long.

 

[MMWX]

I will say I don't see anything in the Marianna warning that necessitates a warning.

 

[Clancy]

Came back from dinner to see Memphis metro under siege. Lots of RF going on from KNQA, so hard to make heads or tails of possible tornadic activity. Dryersburg-Friendship cell looks very impressive atm.

 

[MMWX]

New warning in the Memphis radar hole

 

[treypops]

I will say I don't see anything in the Marianna warning that necessitates a warning.

NWS Memphis says it will be cancelled/ allowed to expire

 

[SmokeEater]

New TW for Greenville, KY, in an area that's in a considerable FFW.

 

[MMWX]

This QLCS is a beaut, though. Take a look at any camera in Memphis facing west. Just awesome to look at.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I thought that hail core was a debris signature southwest of Memphis lol

 

[Clancy]

Very strong helicity will only expand over the coming hours as these storms move into MS and then AL. Even with waning instability, the LLJ and any northward advecting moisture may sustain dangerous storms well into the night. Would be wary of boundary-riders, currently along the MS/TN border, and later along the I-20 corridor in AL. Latest HRRR has trended more aggressive with UH streaks across much of MS, AL and into western GA. Over the next few hours, anything that gets going in central LA could become very troublesome, but question remains as to whether they actually intensify or not.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

A lot of hailcores showing up that look like debris on CC tonight. So just be weary of that guys. 3spikes help differentiate the long line I circled.

 

[wx_guy]

The latest HRRR continues the heavy updraft helicity signatures into the B'ham metro area.

 

[MMWX]

A lot of hailcores showing up that look like debris on CC tonight. So just be weary of that guys. 3spikes help differentiate the long line I circled. View attachment 33859

Looks like gonna be more hail than forecasted.

 

[Kds86z]

These storms in western tn gonna drop?

 

[wx_guy]

Looks like Storm-NET was right-on identifying the Memphis threat a couple hours ahead of time. For the next 3 hours, the main threat zones (according to it) is central Louisiana and north Mississippi/SW Tennessee.