Wazim Khan
Member
Well I think the name Humberto will continue its Hurricane streak, Imelda cause I-name, and Karen might be a Karen. I'll most likely be wrong with these names.
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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
- Thread starter Atlantic
- Start date
IdaliaHelene
Member
Numerology says
Karen and Imelda are probably cat 1-2 and Imelda causing Giga flooding
Humberto ERIs close to the coast and is a MH conus landfall
Wazim Khan
Member
IRI Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast
The chance of La Niña in August to October 2025 actually increased from 44% to 46%.
The chance of La Niña in August to October 2025 actually increased from 44% to 46%.
IdaliaHelene
Member
Jova for ninocelsIRI Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast
The chance of La Niña in August to October 2025 actually increased from 44% to 46%.
View attachment 34006
IdaliaHelene
Member
IdaliaHelene
Member
Early look at the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
An early look at the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season based on SST anomaly Analogs suggests that the best analog years are 2011, 2009, 1974, 1976, and 2012.
fredpickhardt.substack.com
IdaliaHelene
Member
bullshit IMO
Wazim Khan
Member
I just checked the analogs on that image and 1976 and 2009 are horrible analogs because El Niño events developed in those years. I agree with it being bullshit.
IdaliaHelene
Member
JFL at those analogs. Are they just lazy/tired out from last year?
What happened to 2021 (IMO a better analog)?
Wazim Khan
Member
Yes, 2021 is a better analog.
IdaliaHelene
Member
WHY ARE THE SO CALLED "METS" NOT EVEN MENTIONING IT THEN JFL?
Wazim Khan
Member
Wazim Khan
Member
Also, I just checked the source of that image showing the analogs, and it's made using the NMME's global SST forecast.
Current analogs , 2011 is the only good one IMO.
Wazim Khan
Member
These analogs are based on the forecast of one model (NMME), so it makes sense that some of those analogs will be bad ones.
Wazim Khan
Member
If we look for analogs based on the most probable ENSO phase, I'd say 1984 and 2017 are the best analogs with 2021 following in line.
IdaliaHelene
Member
how excrement is NNME?
Wazim Khan
Member
Actually, the NMME is forecasting a cool ENSO-Neutral during the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which is better than some of the other models like the ECMWF, CFSv2 and CanSIPS forecasting a warm ENSO-Neutral.
IdaliaHelene
Member
Wazim Khan
Member
The NMME is suggesting that the hotspots for Tropical Cyclogenesis during the peak of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season are the Tropical North Atlantic, the Western Atlantic Ocean and portions of the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America).
IdaliaHelene
Member
This looks excrement for hurricanes
No green in the caribbean or GOA right