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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Wazim Khan said:
This shows that some of the Tropical Cyclones will curve out to sea while a couple may head for the U.S. east coast. It is also showing a signal near Texas and Louisiana.
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I had quite a few staying OTS but some uncomfortably close to land
You?
Wazim Khan said:
That's showing the Low-Levels (850mb) of the Atmosphere. The CanSIPS is also forecasting weaker than normal Upper-Level (200mb) winds which would be more favorable for Tropical Cyclone formation.




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Oh excrement. Do you know which places could struggle for TCG?
 
IdaliaHelene said:
Oh excrement. Do you know which places could struggle for TCG?
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While I do expect Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Caribbean Sea this year, at this time, I don't expect the Caribbean Sea to feature as many Tropical Cyclone formations as it did last year. During the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, 5 Tropical Cyclones (Debby, Helene, Nadine, Rafael and Sara) formed in the Caribbean Sea. We also had Beryl crossing the Windward Islands and trekking across the Caribbean Sea and Ernesto crossing the Leeward Islands and briefly trekking across the northeastern Caribbean Sea before crossing the U.S. Virgin Islands and entering the western Atlantic Ocean.

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Wazim Khan said:
This is the probabilistic strength forecast for the ENSO that was issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on the 9th of January. The CPC will be issuing an ENSO update in a few hours.


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El Niño chances in August to October 2025 have decreased from 21% to 17% between January and February while La Niña chances remained at 35%. There's now a 36% chance of La Niña in September to November 2025.
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Wazim Khan said:
At this time, ENSO-Neutral is most likely during the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. However, La Niña chances are slowly growing and it could continue to grow in the coming months leading up to the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


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"Looking further ahead, there are no strong signals right now for next fall and ENSO-neutral is favored, but we do see a tilt in the odds toward La Niña over El Niño. There are some hints in the climate models in this direction, but it’s too early to make a confident prediction (plus we are going through the infamous spring barrier when ENSO predictions are particularly challenging)."
 
Wazim Khan said:
"Looking further ahead, there are no strong signals right now for next fall and ENSO-neutral is favored, but we do see a tilt in the odds toward La Niña over El Niño. There are some hints in the climate models in this direction, but it’s too early to make a confident prediction (plus we are going through the infamous spring barrier when ENSO predictions are particularly challenging)."
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Muh warm neutral
Muh El Nino
 
Wazim Khan said:
While I do expect Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Caribbean Sea this year, at this time, I don't expect the Caribbean Sea to feature as many Tropical Cyclone formations as it did last year. During the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, 5 Tropical Cyclones (Debby, Helene, Nadine, Rafael and Sara) formed in the Caribbean Sea. We also had Beryl crossing the Windward Islands and trekking across the Caribbean Sea and Ernesto crossing the Leeward Islands and briefly trekking across the northeastern Caribbean Sea before crossing the U.S. Virgin Islands and entering the western Atlantic Ocean.

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Do you think the Caribbean Sea would be dead or nah?
 
IdaliaHelene said:
Do you think the Caribbean Sea would be dead or nah?
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It won't be be dead, but less active than last year, at least a couple Tropical Cyclones. I think the hotspots for Tropical Cyclogenesis during the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be the Tropical North Atlantic, the Western Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America for the U.S.).
 
The next IRI Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast will be issued on Wednesday 19th of February, 2025. It will definitely continue to favor a La Niña developing during the peak of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, as it only uses model output without human judgment to calculate the probabilities.
 
Wazim Khan said:
The next IRI Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast will be issued on Wednesday 19th of February, 2025. It will definitely continue to favor a La Niña developing during the peak of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, as it only uses model output without human judgment to calculate the probabilities.
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What are your big one candidates for 2025?
 
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