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Severe threat Wednesday February 12, 2025

I'm still not super sold on this event performing. I hope I am correct in my hunch. Lapse rates are relatively weak but adequate and I do not quite buy the supercell-printing nature of some of the CAMs right now. I think a big QLCS with line-embedded spin ups is far more likely than strong, long-tracked tornadoes (which is still quite bad). Hopefully 2025 doesn't start off with a bang.
 
slenker said:
I'm still not super sold on this event performing. I hope I am correct in my hunch. Lapse rates are relatively weak but adequate and I do not quite buy the supercell-printing nature of some of the CAMs right now. I think a big QLCS with line-embedded spin ups is far more likely than strong, long-tracked tornadoes (which is still quite bad). Hopefully 2025 doesn't start off with a bang.
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agreed, but if the 2/5 tors told us anything, expect the unexpected
 
Skeptical of what the HRRR is putting out. While the UH streaks are there, unlikely they make it to the ground with temps in the lower 40s across parts of AL/GA. Not impossible, but I'm not quite buying it. Also, tons of rain right now keeping things cool and stable.

Edit: Specifically referring to the northern half of AL and GA. Central-Southern AL and MS should absolutely be watching it closely!
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Some good clearing across southern Alabama. The cumulus field is streaming north along with the strong warm air advection. 16z reports have mid to upper 70s across the Florida Panhandle and far southern Alabama.
 
Cyclonic Paracosm said:
we got 2hrs till event begins, thats 2 more hrs of clearing, if it still hasn't improved, I will not be sold on today
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Remember, you don't necessarily need clearing (at least clearing of cloud cover) to get destabilization. There's strong advection of maritime tropical air from the Gulf. It remains to be seen exactly how far north the warm front makes it, but areas south of the warm front will rapidly destabilize.
 
Jason Mills said:
Remember, you don't necessarily need clearing (at least clearing of cloud cover) to get destabilization. There's strong advection of maritime tropical air from the Gulf. It remains to be seen exactly how far north the warm front makes it, but areas south of the warm front will rapidly destabilize.
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yup, heavy clearing now underway in the LA/Ms region
 
Cyclonic Paracosm said:
View attachment 33609
Ok now, wtf
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with that kind of instability already in place, you don't really need much help from the sun. the llj will transport that instability northward quite efficiently on its own, so you'll get adequate destabilization in place. insolation doesn't matter nearly as much in the southeast as it does in the midwest or plains since you're right next to your source of warm, moist air.
 
Mesoscale Discussion 0087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Areas affected...central Louisiana across central and southern
Mississippi and into west-central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 121736Z - 122000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase along the cold front near the Sabine
River, and near the warm front across Mississippi into Alabama.
Scattered supercells are forecast, with several tornadoes possible
later today.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low near the Sabine River with
a cold front extending from southeast TX across northern LA/MS. A
warm front currently stretches from the surface low eastward across
southern MS, AL, and GA.

The early day precipitation shield within the warm advection regime
continues to lift north, while boundary-layer mixing and pockets of
heating develop south of the warm front. Persistent southwest flow
with over 40 kt at 850 mb will result in rapid air mass recovery
over parts of central/northeast LA into central MS, and a portion of
south-central/southwest AL.

Initially, storms are expected to develop near or just ahead of the
cold front as it moves out of TX and into western LA today. This air
mass will continue to destabilize, with strong deep-layer shear and
sufficient low-level SRH supporting a wind, tornado, and isolated
hail threat.

Later this afternoon and more aligned with the diurnal cycle,
multiple supercells are expected to develop in the vicinity of the
northward-advancing warm front from central/southern MS into western
AL. Effective SRH to around 300 m2/s2 through 00Z along with a deep
moistening boundary layer along with increasing large-scale ascent
ahead of the cold front a suggest a strong tornado or two may occur.
Current visible satellite and radar already show deepening
convection over southeast LA, and this regime may be the beginnings
of the supercell risk as it develops northeastward today.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 02/12/2025
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