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Winter Threat January 18-24 do ya wanna build a snowman??

The Colonel said:
I feel like the NAM is kind of telling here at 0z. If it’s not as juiced (and it has a tendency to be juiced in the late range) we could be in some trouble
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Wonder how much ice it takes to take down a palm tree?

(No, I'm not believing this will happen - this is the NAM we're talking about, it forecasts heavy snow as ice, at least this year so far.)
1737244763116.png
 
Holy gradient, Batman. 18z NAM said yes, cold is coming, but I see the warm Gulf too - look at the upper 70s there. Also notice how far north NAM is putting the gradient and the low.
1737245429226.png
 
Interesting to look at the soundings from the 18z Euro. In large areas of the "snow" area, it's actually probably snow/sleet mix. But the dendritic growth zone is about 3300 feet, which is very good and supportive of moderate accumulation. Curious if that warm nose that creates the sleet will be present or not ("Do you wanna build a sleetman?" doesn't have the same ring to it...)



1737249961308.png


1737250062845.png
 
In fact, both the GFS and the Euro are suggesting REALLY low Precipitable Water values in the dendritic growth zone (where snow best forms). This could put a dent in snowfall rates and/or just be light fluffy snowfall.
 
wx_guy said:
Interesting to look at the soundings from the 18z Euro. In large areas of the "snow" area, it's actually probably snow/sleet mix. But the dendritic growth zone is about 3300 feet, which is very good and supportive of moderate accumulation. Curious if that warm nose that creates the sleet will be present or not ("Do you wanna build a sleetman?" doesn't have the same ring to it...)



View attachment 33160


View attachment 33161
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The 850mb low is likely too far south for sleet, as shown in the sounding....all below freezing..
 
wx_guy said:
In fact, both the GFS and the Euro are suggesting REALLY low Precipitable Water values in the dendritic growth zone (where snow best forms). This could put a dent in snowfall rates and/or just be light fluffy snowfall.
Click to expand...
I've been saying 15:1 snowfall given Tuesdays temps. In 2014 BMX said snowfall ratios approached 20:1.
 
Shelby Co has moderate snow accumulation, Jefferson Co has little to no snow accumulation. So that's probably your dividing line with the WSWatch unless the models change. @UncleJuJu98 do you have the new NAM to share?
 
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