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Winter threat: 1/9-12/ 25

Richardjacks said:
doesnt quite work that way, but yes in simple terms...the wet bulb temp isn't right in the middle of the temp anx dewpoint. if the air temps is 33, you need a dewpoint of like 27 to get the temp 31 at saturation
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Yes! This might not be exact but my observation over time shows approx a 2:1 ratio of dew point increase:temp degree decrease for wet bulb calculation. Please correct me if I’m wrong.
 
Snowing like crazy in Dallas, looks like. That's a good upstream sign, IMO. Will be interesting to watch. It's a decent upstream indicator, but not perfect because it doesn't have as much of the surface low influence as we will have east. They also don't have the cold air damming from the Appalachians though, so we'll see if that can compensate.
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MikeP said:
Is the precip ahead of schedule? Seeing snow returns in NW MS already. Might not be reaching the ground however.
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I expect probably not reaching the ground - check how dry the air is east. Dewpoints still in the teens, and high presure pushing that air west at the surface. We've going to have some serious evap cooling, IMO.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
How's temperatures doing? Under forecasted? Over forecasted or just right?
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^^ The million dollar question.

I would say they are running about as expected so far. I like that the precip type in Dallas is snow - it makes me think the dynamic cooling of the column that we are hoping for is happening.
 
In E TX and LA, looks like most of the precip is rain and temps are above freezing.

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Richardjacks said:
We have to wait til late tonight before we know if things are going to plan.
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(You're exactly right though - the dynamic factors during the event will mean more than what's up now, by far.)
 
Any clue on how north/south the low is expected to be as it travels over MS/AL?
 
My wife was just out and about and relayed to me various overheard conversations. "It's going to snow!" "It's going to be ice." "Nah, it's not going to do anything but rain."

My response? "All valid possibilities." LOL. Gotta love winter storms in the south.
 
Blountwolf said:
My wife was just out and about and relayed to me various overheard conversations. "It's going to snow!" "It's going to be ice." "Nah, it's not going to do anything but rain."

My response? "All valid possibilities." LOL. Gotta love winter storms in the south.
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The safe forecast: It will precipitate somewhere at some point over the next 48 hours.
 
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