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Winter threat: 1/9-12/ 25

JPWX said:
I'm sure the FB comments about this are the following:

"Am I in the Winter Storm Watch?"
"How much snow am I getting"
"Now are you sure it'll snow"
"I don't remember it ever snowing here in January"
"Will schools be cancelled?"
"I saw a map showing 15 inches for me. Is that true?"
And many many more
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you forgot one- should I buy milk and bread?
 
looking at the sounding for birmingham...that pesky east surface wind...likely pulling in very dry air from Georgia...is it enough to offset warming aloft and add to the meltative cooling process? That warm nose at the 850mb is a beast....I am thinking a periodof snow and ice then rain and it melts everything by Noon. That will reduce power outages and traffic issues will be very short in duration
 
Until the Euro or GFS gets on more board with what the Canadian and now NAM has with the more ice threat, I'm not buying it. Granted though there will be some ice issues. I'm not saying there won't be, but not to the extent the Canadian is showing unless something drastic changes.
 
JPWX said:
Until the Euro or GFS gets on more board with what the Canadian and now NAM has with the more ice threat, I'm not buying it. Granted though there will be some ice issues. I'm not saying there won't be, but not to the extent the Canadian is showing unless something drastic changes.
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well we can remember all the times the nam was too warm when looking at instability and storm threat.....
 
Richardjacks said:
looking at the sounding for birmingham...that pesky east surface wind...likely pulling in very dry air from Georgia...is it enough to offset warming aloft and add to the meltative cooling process? That warm nose at the 850mb is a beast....I am thinking a periodof snow and ice then rain and it melts everything by Noon. That will reduce power outages and traffic issues will be very short in duration
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I honestly thought that was the forecast thinking all along regardless of frozen precip type late Thursday night in to pre dawn Fri changing over to a cold rain midday Friday. At least for central AL. - Bham area and areas east west and south of there. TN valley areas could stay frozen for the duration. 278 north I guess....
 
MikeP said:
I honestly thought that was the forecast thinking all along regardless of frozen precip type late Thursday night in to pre dawn Fri changing over to a cold rain midday Friday. At least for central AL. - Bham area and areas east west and south of there. TN valley areas could stay frozen for the duration. 278 north I guess....
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when things were looking more marginal...I wasn't so sure about the changeover to rain, but thats looking more likely with the nam...alot less clear on gfs due to surface temps being so marginal
 
PopPop said:
Just introducing myself here. I know very little about the science of weather, but I always enjoy getting on here to see what people who, at least seem to know more than me, have to say about what might (usually not) come. I'm in Moody, AL, about 10 miles or so east of Birmingham, on the I-20 corridor.
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Welcome to TalkWeather! Thanks for joining us!
 
This is what I sent to my county EMA director this evening:

Summary: A significant winter storm is expected to affect a large portion of the Deep South (MS to Georgia) late Thursday evening thru Friday. This will include all types of winter precipitation including freezing rain, snow, and sleet.

The latest info for North MS (including Monroe):

*A Winter Storm Watch is in effect areawide from 6pm Thursday thru 6am Saturday.
*Total Snow: 2-6 inches
*A light glaze of ice is possible

Total Snow Range:
Low End Range: 1-3 inches
Middle Range: 2-4 inches
High End Range: 5-8 inches (locally 10+)

What We Know:
1. There will be accumulations (perhaps significant)
2. There will be power outages (scattered to potentially widespread)
3. Travel will be hazardous. Expect significant travel disruptions.
4. Nothing points to a major ice storm. The bulk of this looks to be all snow.

What We Don't Know:
1. Total Accumulation amounts
2. What type of accumulations happen
 
Between it goosing the Santa Anas during a wildfire and creating the cyclogenesis in the Gulf later this week, this trough is quite the troublemaker.
 
Blountwolf said:
Between it goosing the Santa Anas during a wildfire and creating the cyclogenesis in the Gulf later this week, this trough is quite the troublemaker.
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Yeah, not to get off topic but the winds are ripping in SoCal tonight. Not expected to peak for another 3-4 hours either. Gonna be a bad night for Pacific Palisades/Santa Monica Hills. We were out there this last spring and witnessed the last measurable rain they had. Been almost 9 months now. Potentially a disastrous night ahead. Santa Annas are fierce. Sorry, back on topic....
 
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