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Hurricane Hurricane Milton

brianc33710 said:
Milton is trying to repair his eyewall.
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Yes, repeatedly - with what we had assumed would be diminishing success, but it does look healthy right now. Really hope it's not possible to stack back up at height. With that said - two things going for him. 1) Proximity to the coast - we've seen them have a tendency to tighten up due to orographic effects. 2) The Atlantic ocean. Hot, untapped moisture now available. Working against is shear (shown as relaxing now on the tendency map) and dry air, which also seems to have a mitigating factor now - he's pulled in or closed the distance between the northern moisture plume and the CDO - moistening the whole shebang. Crazy storm. Glad I took the time off to watch. Almost positive it won't rewrap and intensify or better hold its own.

Almost.
 
Usually I only comment in this group about tornadoes around where I live, hurricanes are a whole new beast to me. My aunt and uncle live on Pine Island down by Cape Coral and they chose not to evacuate. I am horribly stressed for them. They have lived on Pine Island for decades now and have stayed for every hurricane, including Ian, so I think they believe they, like many Floridians, can ride it out. I really appreciate this group so much, it's always so informative. I will be anxiously watching this storm and all your posts hoping for the best for everyone!
 
cheestaysfly said:
Usually I only comment in this group about tornadoes around where I live, hurricanes are a whole new beast to me. My aunt and uncle live on Pine Island down by Cape Coral and they chose not to evacuate. I am horribly stressed for them. They have lived on Pine Island for decades now and have stayed for every hurricane, including Ian, so I think they believe they, like many Floridians, can ride it out. I really appreciate this group so much, it's always so informative. I will be anxiously watching this storm and all your posts hoping for the best for everyone!
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Wishing the best for them! Keep us updated on how they fare!
 
tornado examiner said:
Is there a way to measure the current maximum storm surge height before landfall occurs?
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Not really - there's a lot of variables that go in to it, like shape of the coastline, where the eye makes landfall in relation to that part of the cost, etc. There's a model called the SLOSH model that NOAA uses to forecast, but knowing exactly depends on storm behavior.
https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/slosh

I keep an eye on the buoys, but that just gives an idea how bad the waves on top will be, really.

NDBC - Station 42036 Recent Data

National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from buoy 42036 (28.501N 84.508W) - WEST TAMPA - 112 NM WNW of Tampa, FL.
www.ndbc.noaa.gov www.ndbc.noaa.gov
 
The Hurricane Hunter drop sondes are not really measuring Cat 3 winds anymore, so it's possible it may be downgraded further before landfall. Not counting on it, though.
 
Yet another, possibly strong tornado moving through the Vero Beach-Gifford area.
1728505832356.png
 
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