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Hurricane Hurricane Milton

At 11 AM Eastern, Milton was 65 MPH. Max forecast intensity 125 MPH, high end C3.
583
WTNT44 KNHC 061458
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Milton is strengthening.
A large burst of convection is occurring in the northern semicircle
of the storm, with lots of expanding outflow. The last fix from the
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed a pressure down to 991 mb
with maximum 500m low-level winds of about 65 kt. These winds
reduce down to the surface to about 55 kt, and this value will be
the initial intensity.

The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the
previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or
105/5 kt. Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east
today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern
Gulf of Mexico. The storm should then turn northeastward and
accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula.
As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been
a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new
NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early
on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the
guidance trend continues. The Mexican government has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the
average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users
should not focus on the exact track.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed
on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to
intensify quickly. Given the track over the very deep warm waters
of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days,
rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC
prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of
Mexico. The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as
Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a
notable increase in shear. While some weakening is anticipated,
the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at
landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area. Regardless of
the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful
hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions
of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents
there should closely monitor this system and listen to local
officials.


Key Messages:

1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward
to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane
when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as
there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and
intensity of Milton.

2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of
life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early
Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches could be issued later
today or tonight. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow
any advice given by local officials and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential of moderate to major river
flooding.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Monday across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.4N 94.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 22.2N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 23.5N 88.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 24.7N 86.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 29.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake
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1728227374527.png
 
ICON ticks north on the 12z run, maybe a 50 mile shift with landfall right around Sarasota.
Interesting, since ICON has been leading the southern solution for almost 2 days.

Let's see if the GFS responds.

Models consensus seems to be growing around a Sarasota landfall. 20 miles north or south could have massive implications for Tampa Bay. Tricky forecast.
 
Ensembles still favor somewhere near Tampa, but a few more members showing up south of the city proper. Intensity guidance is troublesome, to say the least.
1728227655906.png1728227669516.png
 
lake.effect said:
ICON ticks north on the 12z run, maybe a 50 mile shift with landfall right around Sarasota.
Interesting, since ICON has been leading the southern solution for almost 2 days.

Let's see if the GFS responds.

Models consensus seems to be growing around a Sarasota landfall. 20 miles north or south could have massive implications for Tampa Bay. Tricky forecast.
Click to expand...
Nope, GFS is north of Tampa at 12z

1728230903824.png
 
The 12z runs aren't great for Tampa. The current trend is slightly north, noticeably stronger, somewhat faster and larger.

  1. GFS has a 948mb hurricane brushing the coast just north of Clearwater (about 30 miles north of previous run) and making landfall near Crystal River. This run verbatim would create a very bad surge situation for Tampa Bay.
  2. ICON has a 970-ish landfall near Sarasota, but importantly this is a big 50 mile north shift from previous runs and it is has been one the southern outliers.
  3. Canadian has a notably stronger storm and landfall near Ft. Myers, maybe a very slight north tick. It is the southern outlier now.
 
Ghoztwx said:
JP. What are you seeing that says this will lower intensity at landfall? Always appreciate your input !
Click to expand...
The only two things I see is it undergoing a EWRC few hours prior to landfall and how close it gets to the Yucatan as it may entrain dry air off as with Helene. Otherwise, it's all systems go. Also the thing to watch now is how strong it gets before reaching the vicinity of the Yucatan. My worry now is that a stronger Milton will shift the track further north avoiding getting close to the Yucatan altogether. If that's the case, then the EWRC happening is our only other option for this not hitting at peak intensity.
 
Trey's remarks on weakening prospects, shear being the main one. That being said, if it were to weaken upon approach, we would likely see a storm increasing in size, and thusly, areal impacts.
 
It's also worth noting as well that the last official category 4 to hit west coast of Florida was Ian (2022) and last category 3 to hit west coast of Florida was Irma (2017). There has never been a category 5 landfall hit on Florida's west coast on official records.
 
That Sucks The Office GIF
 
Also I just went back through the Atlantic hurricane seasons to 1950. It's the first time on record that you have 3 active Atlantic hurricanes at once on October 6th.
 
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