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Hurricane Hurricane Milton

HAFS-B has it weakening some before landfall, but ramping up to that 918 monster before. The dome of water that would create will come with it, regardless. Another really bad hit coming.
 
Milton is the 7th tropical system this season to either form or get into the Gulf. To put this into perspective, here's the list of other years (going back to 2000) that were busy in the Gulf.
2020 had 10 tropical systems to either form or get in the Gulf.
2017 had 7 tropical systems to either form or get in the Gulf.
2010 had 7 tropical systems
2005 had 11 tropical systems
2004 had 5 tropical systems
2003 had 6 tropical systems
2002 had 6 tropical systems
2000 had 6 tropical systems
 
Not that it's the best model for hurricanes, but the 12Z NAM is now showing the storm and coming north with it compared to previous runs. Still the furthest south of the daily models.
 
Another flood coming - big one. Almost 20 inches showing in NE FL, without the assistance of orographic lift. Wouldn't focus too much on exactly where yet - this could honestly happen anywhere on the peninsula or over the whole peninsula if bands set up just wrong. With it moving west to east, it will be moving into sinking moisture from its own upper level outflow, so lots of moisture coming.
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I looked back in the NHC archives to 1994 and I can’t find a similar situation of having to major hurricane US impacts in a less than 2 week span.

2004 (3 impacts - Charley, Ivan, Jeanne), 2005 (4 impacts - Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma), and 2020 (2 impacts - Laura and one of the Greek storms). In all these cases there was at least 28 days between major landfalls.

Anything further back that might be similar? This seems pretty unusual.

On a personal note, if the forecast track line was a physical object, I’d probably see it from my house.
 
Harvey/Irma 2017
I know there's others, but those are the ones I know for certain.
 
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The 5PM track takes Milton's eye directly over Tampa itself. Would be a very, very bad time for Tampa if it verified. Wish it weren't so, but ensemble data seems to concur. Will also likely be a highly impactful event well inland, including Orlando.
1728163111379.png1728163159195.png
 
Clancy said:
The 5PM track takes Milton's eye directly over Tampa itself. Would be a very, very bad time for Tampa if it verified. Wish it weren't so, but ensemble data seems to concur. Will also likely be a highly impactful event well inland, including Orlando.
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At the strength it will be and as wet as it is before, all the way across. We'll not see it weaken much on it's trip, I expect. Pretty quick trip - 9ish hours.
 
I guess the only saving grace about this for Florida is there's no mountains to enhance the total rainfall. Still gonna be bad and very impactful.
 
Regarding Hurricane models...

If we're using past performance as an indicator of future results, here's a ranking of this year's model performance by average 5 day forecast error (from best performing to worst)*

HAFS-B
HWRF
Euro
GFS
UKMET
Icon
HMON

(* = looking at performance of landfalling CONUS hurricanes only)

The ranking for intensity forecast error is roughly the same. HWRF and HAFS-B have had the best performing 5-day intensity forecasts of the bunch.

So, if we're averaging the models together but weighing the top-performers higher, the Clearwater landfall scenario appears to be the most statistically probable at this time, as the HWRF, HAFS-B and Euro landfall location average is roughly Clearwater.

This also would suggest the southern landfall scenario is less likely, as the lower performers are generally favoring a southern landfall (with the exception of HMON).

Looking at intensity, the average of the top 3 performers is roughly a 950mb landfall, with the Euro being the outlier. Taking into account the Euro's tendencies to underestimate hurricane pressure, 940s appears would be the most likely landfalling pressure.
 
lake.effect said:
Regarding Hurricane models...

If we're using past performance as an indicator of future results, here's a ranking of this year's model performance by average 5 day forecast error (from best performing to worst)*

HAFS-B
HWRF
Euro
GFS
UKMET
Icon
HMON

(* = looking at performance of landfalling CONUS hurricanes only)

The ranking for intensity forecast error is roughly the same. HWRF and HAFS-B have had the best performing 5-day intensity forecasts of the bunch.

So, if we're averaging the models together but weighing the top-performers higher, the Clearwater landfall scenario appears to be the most statistically probable at this time, as the HWRF, HAFS-B and Euro landfall location average is roughly Clearwater.

This also would suggest the southern landfall scenario is less likely, as the lower performers are generally favoring a southern landfall (with the exception of HMON).

Looking at intensity, the average of the top 3 performers is roughly a 950mb landfall, with the Euro being the outlier. Taking into account the Euro's tendencies to underestimate hurricane pressure, 940s appears would be the most likely landfalling pressure.
Click to expand...
That scenario, while very possible, would be a nightmare for Tampa Bay.
 
wx_guy said:
That scenario, while very possible, would be a nightmare for Tampa Bay.
Click to expand...
No doubt about it.

I think there are 3 distinct scenarios now:

1) Landfall south - looking less likely, but best case for Tampa Bay. Offshore flow would minimize surge impacts for most areas, although a reverse surge would impact some of the barrier islands around Tampa. This scenario would heavily impact Ft. Meyers, Naples, and even Key West with major surge and wind.

2) Clearwater Landfall - As of now, looks most likely of all the scenarios. Also a worst-case for Tampa Bay surge effects. This scenario would produce 10-15 ft surge throughout Tampa Bay. Potentially even higher.

3) Cedar Key landfall - the 2nd most likely in my opinion. A few models are trending north today, but we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see if the trend holds. This scenario would still put Tampa, Clearwater, etc in the 10ft surge range but reduce the potential for really catastrophic surge. Areas between Clearwater and Cedar Key would see the worst wind and surge, again with 15+ surge being possible.

None of the scenarios look good, but in terms of the lowest total impact on lives and property, #3 might be the best.
 
The 18z Hurricane Models are trickling in...and let me be the first to say: NOT GOOD

EDIT: For added clarity -- Exhibit A, the HAFS-B on MONDAY afternoon (two full days before landfall)


1728169421666.png
 
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