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Severe Weather Threat May 7-10, 2024

On visible, you can clearly see the boundary that's formed, draping across the bottom half of Louisiana and the bottom thirds of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. You can see sun out below this, with convective cumulus already popping up quite abundantly. This area has dew points climbing into the 70s with CAPE exceeding 3k. Low-level lapse rates across southeast AL already over 7. It won't take much to have some explosive thunderstorms here this afternoon.

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Some more looking into a derecho possibility. I *might* have drawn the box a bit too far south, so I'll have to watch that in upcoming model runs. But from this box's sounding, I calculated the Derecho Composite Parameter and it is about 4.6, which is well above the 2 threshold to correlate to derechos. Of course, note sure what will happen, but dangerous downdrafts seem to be very possible, regardless if it qualifies as a derecho or not.


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buckeye05 said:
Not quite as bad as I was expecting this area to look honestly. That radar signature was about as scary as it gets.
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So glad to hear that the damage doesn't appear to be nearly as bad as feared. Very surprised considering the velocity couplet and TDS we saw last night.
 
Latest HRRR paints a potentially concerning situation with a supercell in Northern Jefferson County in Alabama around 7-8pm moving into a locally enhanced area of STP in the range of 5-7. CAPE is insane, SRH is more than sufficient, and overall shear looks potent. Very significant updraft helicity streak with said cell as it makes it way through the county moving southeast and transits through Shelby/St. Clair and then into Talladega county. The cell seems to become potent around Morris and Kimberly.
 
Evan said:
Latest HRRR paints a potentially concerning situation with a supercell in Northern Jefferson County in Alabama around 7-8pm moving into a locally enhanced area of STP in the range of 5-7. CAPE is insane, SRH is more than sufficient, and overall shear looks potent. Very significant updraft helicity streak with said cell as it makes it way through the county moving southeast and transits through Shelby/St. Clair and then into Talladega county. The cell seems to become potent around Morris and Kimberly.
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Yep, it's been fairly consistent with some activity over that area for several runs. Other CAMs not as supportive of this solution, but seeing as how rapidly AL is destabilizing again, wouldn't be surprised if something like that panned out. Definitely bears watching.
 
Parameters are impressive over that ar
Clancy said:
Yep, it's been fairly consistent with some activity over that area for several runs. Other CAMs not as supportive of this solution, but seeing as how rapidly AL is destabilizing again, wouldn't be surprised if something like that panned out. Definitely bears watching.
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Parameters are impressive over that area on the hrrr
 
Evan said:
Latest HRRR paints a potentially concerning situation with a supercell in Northern Jefferson County in Alabama around 7-8pm moving into a locally enhanced area of STP in the range of 5-7. CAPE is insane, SRH is more than sufficient, and overall shear looks potent. Very significant updraft helicity streak with said cell as it makes it way through the county moving southeast and transits through Shelby/St. Clair and then into Talladega county. The cell seems to become potent around Morris and Kimberly.
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Well, if that manages to pan out, I’ll be able to give a first hand report since I’m from Morris.
 
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