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Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

Tanner said:
13z HRRR is an uptrend for sure, it looks more cellular to me. It's slightly nebulous at this point though, because we're so close to the event firing off.
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Just about to the nowcasting stage, model utility may start to drop off, especially if they fail to pick up on small things.
 
Tanner said:
It looks like the dewpoint surge northward is slightly behind compared to forecast runs. I still expect it to rapidly surge here in the next hour or two.
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Yeah, really doubt it'll be much of an issue today (definitely a change from the past several systems, though!)
 
Tempestas Tonitrua said:
Really curious if that complex in west/south-west Tennessee heading into KY works over the atmosphere again after the morning storms came through.
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Yeah I was just looking at that. The areas between the two blobs of convection are recovering pretty quickly. 60F dews already up to the Ohio River in western KY. I don’t think its going to affect the MDT area directly because it’s too small and too far south but it could cut off some of that moisture return.
 
New Tornado Watch.
 
MichelleH said:
Sun keeps trying to come out here.
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It's shining full force in Smithville.

Just sent this to my EMA director and newspaper: Good Morning!

A significant severe weather and tornado outbreak is expected today for North MS into Alabama.

North MS:

Primary Threats: damaging winds to 70mph, golf ball size hail, and tornadoes (few strong)

Overall Categorical Risk: Level 3 out of 5 (Enhanced)
Signifcant Tornado Probability (EF2-EF5): 10% to 14% (within 25 miles of a point)
Storm Timing: Noon through 8pm
Severe Storm Timing: 2pm through 5pm
 
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