Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

[notsoencrypted]

Well. I shouldn't have said I hoped tomorrow would fall through, I guess.

At least I'll be too busy to worry about my Ohio friends, but that also means I won't get to watch the event unfold, either. Stay safe, everyone!

 

[cniemczura]

quite a bit of on & off rain in cincinnati over the next 24 hours so i suspect the limited northern extent of the d2 is just a confidence limitation at this time. a potent environment will certainly be present tomorrow (its only 9am but its already 65, we really don't get that too often this early in the year here) but i don't think models are gonna have a good grip on tomorrow's crapvection for at least 12 more hours

Just walked outside north of the city - it's sticky today!

 

[jiharris0220]

I’m getting vibes of a similar outbreak.

 

[notsoencrypted]

Looks like we have the first watch of the day; severe thunderstorm watch for eastern Kansas.

Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely

 

[warneagle]

First watch of the day

 

[TornadoFan]

Tornado watch coming for Oklahoma.

 

[wx_guy]

Day 2 MDT issued, and the SLT greatly expanded in area also.

 

[MMWX]

I feel like much more of East MS should be under an ENH in the D2.

 

[SmokeEater]

Tor watch out for OK.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

 

[atrainguy]

 

[TornadoFan]

Already a large area of 2000+ CAPE over Oklahoma despite the cloud cover.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Yeesh

 

[TornadoFan]

Yeesh

 

[Brice W]

Impressive

That is actually horrifying, I leave for an hour and The SPC absolutely gives us this…? Only problem is the threat might increase and spread.

 

[atrainguy]

Yeesh

Oh boy, is that the infamous I-44 corridor I see there included in on the action?

 

[wx_guy]

I've been at work, but just looking at what I can, the parameters may be coming together for the biggest 1-2 day event of the year so far. This is not looking good.

 

[Brice W]

That is actually horrifying, I leave for an hour and The SPC absolutely gives us this…? Only problem is the threat might increase and spread.

Unfortunately I know a lot of people who live in Ohio, friend to family, gonna need to keep an extra eye out for them tmr.

 

[OhOkayThen]

HRRR a bit less robust and messier on this run for Ohio. But it is the longer range HRRR, so to be expected. East Oklahoma looks ugly this after noon, however.

 

[jiharris0220]

Hrrr hardly runs consistently regarding storm mode. Therefore should basically be ignored in that aspect.
Always look at the environmental kinematics as that is far more consistent in predicting what’s going to happen.

 

[Clancy]

18Z HRRR sounding from west of Cullman, AL. Turning of winds with altitude, long, curved hodograph, plus plenty of instability.