Severe Weather Threat 3/7-3/9/2024

[Clancy]

Both CSU and CIPS probs are pretty aggressive, but I'm rather skeptical of their assessments.

 

[KevinH]

Both CSU and CIPS probs are pretty aggressive, but I'm rather skeptical of their assessments.
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Oh ok. I am right in the middle of the last 30% you posted. Yay for West Central GA!

@JPWX I blame you lol (ok not really)

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Both CSU and CIPS probs are pretty aggressive, but I'm rather skeptical of their assessments.
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Just wait for the long range hrrr to blow up all your skepticisms

Lol nah probably have a crazy HRRR runs and then it ends up as nothing like usual

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Oh ok. I am right in the middle of the last 30% you posted. Yay for West Central GA!

@JPWX I blame you lol (ok not really)

Don’t worry. It’s over done … still not impressive

Just wait for the long range hrrr to blow up all your skepticisms

Lol nah probably have a crazy HRRR runs and then it ends up as nothing like usual

not impressed much at all still thus far ….

 

[Clancy]

Just wait for the long range hrrr to blow up all your skepticisms

Lol nah probably have a crazy HRRR runs and then it ends up as nothing like usual

1: NAM comes in poopy
2: HRRR long-range comes in hot
3: HRRR downtrends the day of
4: Rain showers

 

[Clancy]

Real talk though, Gulf Coast may get some severe come Saturday, but the best wind fields are displaced from instability, so it should keep the threat for tornadoes lower.

 

[JPWX]

1: NAM comes in poopy
2: HRRR long-range comes in hot
3: HRRR downtrends the day of
4: Rain showers

Or for the ones who base everything on each model run. Oooh look at that long range severe weather threat.

 

[Clancy]

Or for the ones who base everything on each model run. Oooh look at that long range severe weather threat.

Certified weather Twitter moment.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[KevinH]

View attachment 24125

Hmm.. I expected this to be further east during this timeframe (5am ET Sat)

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[Clancy]

Long-range HRRR doing what it does best. SREF does have pretty decent parameters over parts of LA and southern MS, so worth watching for folks down there.

 

[wx_guy]

Just the initial data reminds me of the earlier Gulf Coast/ FL Panhandle tornado outbreak.

 

[KevinH]

 

[KevinH]

 

[JPWX]

With all the focus on severe weather Friday, let's not disregard the flash flooding potential. Wouldn't be surprised to a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall issued by WPC.

 

[Austin Dawg]

It looks like South Mississippi and eastern Louisiana will get something from all of this. If we're lucky it will fizzy out.

 

[MichelleH]