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Severe Weather Threat 3/7-3/9/2024

GEFS has been pretty consistent in depicting some SCP probs during the period over the SE. Moisture seems decent, though there's still plenty of questions to me about junk convection (and my trust with the globals is still recovering).
scp-prob01.conus.png
 
Clancy said:
GEFS has been pretty consistent in depicting some SCP probs during the period over the SE. Moisture seems decent, though there's still plenty of questions to me about junk convection (and my trust with the globals is still recovering).
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Watch this turn into a heavy rain/flash flood event. LOL! Regardless, it's something to watch.
 
The CIPS analog is pretty aggressive
 

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Trough goes a bit negative tilt and then pretty zonal in the aforementioned low 70 dew area. Zonal flow can still bring a decent severe threat so I don't think it's a super big issue. Junk convection and coastal convection looks like the biggest hiccup so far.

A lot of severe weather outbreaks in the south can be from zonal flow. Biggest one that comes to mind for me is Easter 2020. Just depends on how everything sets up.
 
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KevinH said:
Wake me up around Wed/Thu… too much flip flopping can happen between now and then.

lol

*turns on email notifications anyway*:D
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Don't think there will be as much changing. As it has been the last few weeks. Getting under 120 hours which is decent for consistency. Think your looking at a severe weather risk somewhere, magnitude is what we don't know
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Don't think there will be as much changing. As it has been the last few weeks. Getting under 120 hours which is decent for consistency. Think your looking at a severe weather risk somewhere, magnitude is what we don't know
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Yes, agreed. My previous comment was in reference to magnitude.. and now that I think about it, location as well lol

Stupid fickle Dixie Alley ha
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Trough goes a bit negative tilt and then pretty zonal in the aforementioned low 70 dew area. Zonal flow can still bring a decent severe threat so I don't think it's a super big issue. Junk convection and coastal convection looks like the biggest hiccup so far.

A lot of severe weather outbreaks in the south can be from zonal flow. Biggest one that comes to mind for me is Easter 2020. Just depends on how everything sets up.
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A couple of our summer 2023 events were from persistent zonal flow, iirc.
 
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