Severe Weather 2024

[CheeselandSkies]

0Z run was impressive; 06Z less so although the general pattern remained consistent, which is what matters at this range.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

0Z run was impressive; 06Z less so although the general pattern remained consistent, which is what matters at this range.

Last frame of Euro is also sticking to this general pattern. I'm interested to see 00z Euro tonight.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Last frame of Euro is also sticking to this general pattern. I'm interested to see 00z Euro tonight.

Yeah. Euro tonight’s 0z timeframe will be start of getting into the range

 

[JPWX]

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance shows an eastward progression of a
lower-latitude mid-level trough to the east of the Southeast
Atlantic coastal states early in the extended period. A mid-level
ridge is forecast to shift east across the central U.S. by mid week
with a vigorous upstream mid-level disturbance. Models differ on
the evolution of this shortwave trough as it moves east into the MS
Valley and eastern U.S. during the Thursday-Friday period. As a
result, predictability of both moisture-return quality and important
mass features is uncertain at this time. Nonetheless, some
potential for severe thunderstorms may focus over parts of the lower
MS Valley and Southeast U.S. late in the work week next week.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

runs today thus far look less impressive to me...

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Holding my horses on this one. Been down this rodeo a bunch lol. Although. I have a personal day off of work around this time frame so maybe I'll get lucky

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

00z Euro is showing similar pattern

 

[JPWX]

In other news, the Day 2 Slight Risk with 5% TOR for Sacramento is the first time on record for that area.

If they keep the 5% TOR going into Day 1, it would the first time in February since 2015 and the last time before that in February was 2011.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Why is the GFS like the way it is lol.
End of February is wanting all the smoke

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

12z Euro sticking to it.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[Clancy]

The level of (esp. regarding areal coverage) GEFS agreement is pretty significant, especially for the time of year.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The level of (esp. regarding areal coverage) GEFS agreement is pretty significant, especially for the time of year.

Bad timing can really jank things though, seen some consistent ones in the past to just not mesh well on timing or parameters and Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency high end potential. Wouldn't be surprised for. Day 7-8 outlook if we keep it up though. But these day 4-8 outlooks have flopped as of late

Albeit I'm off of work this day so maybe it's my luck

 

[Clancy]

Bad timing can really jank things though, seen some consistent ones in the past to just not mesh well on timing or parameters and Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency high end potential. Wouldn't be surprised for. Day 7-8 outlook if we keep it up though. But these day 4-8 outlooks have flopped as of late

Albeit I'm off of work this day so maybe it's my luck

Absolutely, little things could nyx even a rather impressive-looking setup, especially at this range, and there's still not a lot of specific agreement, instead mostly broad. But the signals for a generally active period seem fairly solid thus far.

 

[JPWX]

Well, given that my forecasted high for next Tuesday (the 27th) is near 80, something BIG is gonna happen.

 

[Clancy]

00Z GFS is quite something.

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

Will it materialize hmm. Need a good chase after the super bowl Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency chase day lol

 

[Casuarina Head]

On another note, there appear to have been at least two or three tornadoes in southernmost Florida yesterday. Damage has been reported on Cudjoe Key, Monroe Co., and near Cooper City, Broward Co. There was also a radar-indicated tornado over the Everglades, near Krome Avenue, Miami-Dade Co. Surveys have yet to reach these areas, however.

 

[MattW]

CIPS analogs showing possible tornado threat for NE Alabama.

 

[Clancy]

CSU probs are picking up on the threat and the cumulative CIPS indicators are very strong.