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Severe Weather Threat - Jan 11-12th, 2024

UncleJuJu98 said:
I like to use surface theta e for looking at potential surface based instability. I would agree with SPC. Potential is there rather long warm sector, not super broad but a lot bigger than todays sector, that cuts off about the Tennessee state line.

Reminds me of similar scope to Easter 2020 outbreak won't be as large though.
. Long wave trough that gives pure westerlies and cut off very sharp on northward extent..

Won't be identical in magnitude hopefully but I kinda thought there was a few similarities
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My friend said Fridays system looks to be STRONGER than today’s…. And further north…

*sigh*
 
Here's a definition of theta e @Clancy
Hopefully this explains it well.

Screenshot_2024-01-09-11-33-00-32_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg

Your upper level theta e will always be higher than the surface, usually elevated instability is higher than the surface. So always look at the surface to gauge how much potential surface based instability is.

Usually when I see orange and yellow I consider the max instability to be in the moderate range. With deep red and red usually 2000+ Is possible in my head cannon. Lol
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Here's a definition of theta e @Clancy
Hopefully this explains it well.

Your upper level theta e will always be higher than the surface, usually elevated instability is higher than the surface. So always look at the surface to gauge how much potential surface based instability is.

Usually when I see orange and yellow I consider the max instability to be in the moderate range. With deep red and red usually 2000+ Is possible in my head cannon. Lol
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Many thanks. I probably should use it more, but it's one of the parameters I tend to neglect sometimes out of habit more than anything else.
 
Very good timing on the system coming Friday. Typically systems have a habit of slowing down some and this would put Mississippi and Alabama at peak heating if it does.

Doesn't seem like a lot of backing at low levels but should be kept a eye on. I think moisture will be good though.

Depending on how strong the wedge is will determine how pinched off the warm sector is, similar to today's threat albeit this one will be larger since the unstable air is getting pulled further north.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Very good timing on the system coming Friday. Typically systems have a habit of slowing down some and this would put Mississippi and Alabama at peak heating if it does.

Doesn't seem like a lot of backing at low levels but should be kept a eye on. I think moisture will be good though.

Depending on how strong the wedge is will determine how pinched off the warm sector is, similar to today's threat albeit this one will be larger since the unstable air is getting pulled further north.
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With the trough, I'd have to bet modelled wind fields will likely improve with time.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
There's a couple of systems that I want to look up that are similar to this one and see how things evolved. I'll probably do that later. A couple of events pop in my mind when I see this one that might help.
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Would love if you could post this when you get a chance! I wanted to do something similar but won't have a chance until tomorrow or Thursday unfortunately.
 
I'm fairly impressed by the wording by the SPC. I hadn't read what they said today since I've been busy and just got home. Some discrete convection talk. And bombogensis of the low pressure will DEFINITELY help back the winds at the surface and overcome some of these mitigations (my opinion, saw it last January not necessarily in the low bombing out but just deepening, but deeping lows that bomb out ;back the winds a lot and help increase tornado potential as a consequence). Insane kinematics will probably help the warm front move further north rather than being pinched if I had to guess, especially with no convection or storms holding to back, it'll have to go up against a weak wedge though, not sure how that'll hold.
 
March 17th 2021

just off the top of my head is one of the events I thought this reminded me of. I had to check which date because one of them was lower instability and it was this one but really good look. Without really looking too deep this is one of the ones that pops too me.

The other one was the Easter 2020 tornado outbreak just based off how the outline looked from SPC. But the more I think about I toss this one out. I'm going too look at the march 17th one too see if there's a lot of similarities

**Also I'm not saying this event will be similar to the ones mentioned, these are just two that popped in my head when I glanced at the Nam run for Friday.
 
Just a comparison between the 1pm march 17th 2021 Birmingham sounding and a projected sounding near Tuscaloosa for Fridays event for what it's worth. Large dry slot. And extreme wind field. The forecast sounding maybe a bit contaminated lol

2024010912_NAM_078_32.57,-88.13_severe_ml.png
skewt_0317_18Z (1).png
 
KevinH said:
It is a possibility
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The system moves super fast though (which maybe a silver lining) so it may not have time to pull it up further that's one thing that may help mitigate the threat for some areas and why the higher instability doesn't move north fast enough. But idk bares watching, I just finally started looking at this one now that today's event has passed by.
 
I'm more concerned about northern areas of the Deep South getting in on this. That's my two cents on it at this time. Trying to figure out this upcoming threat plus next week's winter palooza has my head spinning in different directions.
 
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