KevinH
Member
Tick tock
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Severe Weather Threat - January 8th-9th, 2024
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
-
- Tags
- severe weather
Tanner
Member
You have to wonder if the storms that have already worked over north New Orleans have left any boundaries that would even further enhance low-level shear.
Things often sort out that way. If there's sharp dew point gradients along the coast, that could prove really troublesome.
KevinH
Member
Future radar that shows supercells across Southern/Central AL
KevinH
Member
Mesoscale Discussion #23
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024
Areas affected...southwestern LA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...
Valid 090207Z - 090300Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and a few tornadoes may increase this evening over the eastern fringe of WW1 as the QLCS has shown increased organization.
DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, observational data has shown an increase in organization of the QLCS over parts of southwestern LA. Increasing lightning flash rates and echo top heights indicate more robust convection has become established along the line as deeper surface moisture (upper 60s F surface dewpoints) has moved onshore. This trend should continue as low-level mass response increases ahead of the main upper trough as evidenced by the increasingly strong 1-2km flow from New Orleans TDWR VWP. With strong low-level shear (0-1km 400+ m2/s2) and moderate buoyancy in place, a more organized QLCS will likely be capable of damaging gusts and line embedded tornadoes this evening.
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024
Areas affected...southwestern LA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...
Valid 090207Z - 090300Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and a few tornadoes may increase this evening over the eastern fringe of WW1 as the QLCS has shown increased organization.
DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, observational data has shown an increase in organization of the QLCS over parts of southwestern LA. Increasing lightning flash rates and echo top heights indicate more robust convection has become established along the line as deeper surface moisture (upper 60s F surface dewpoints) has moved onshore. This trend should continue as low-level mass response increases ahead of the main upper trough as evidenced by the increasingly strong 1-2km flow from New Orleans TDWR VWP. With strong low-level shear (0-1km 400+ m2/s2) and moderate buoyancy in place, a more organized QLCS will likely be capable of damaging gusts and line embedded tornadoes this evening.
KevinH
Member
80/50 TOR probs
Long duration, too, over 10 hours.
Tanner
Member
I don't know if I remember an event like this before; time of year, location, duration, and areas impacted.
KevinH
Member
KevinH
Member
KevinH
Member
Welcome to Dixie Alley.
It's getting late for me. I'll be having a fairly busy week at work, and so I want to be able to get a good night's sleep. As such, I'm calling it a night. I'll check back tomorrow morning to see how things played out while I was asleep. See you guys tomorrow!
KevinH
Member
MikeP
Member
Well over 20k now....
MattPetrulli
Member
It's moreof a sign of continued northward progression of the WF, which is about between Hattiesburg and the LA border rn.
KevinH
Member
Oh THIS is what I forgot about, bowling pins being set up.
MattPetrulli
Member
Current WF positioning.
Most organized convection is N of the WF atm. That should change rather quick in a few hours, however.
Most organized convection is N of the WF atm. That should change rather quick in a few hours, however.
KevinH
Member
Love this. Keep the updates coming!