Directional shear is good, with this event; just the low level shear is questionable. Depending on the low level shear you'll end up with supercells with damaging winds or supercells that can become tornadic. A lot of the parameters mesh pretty well for your low topped supercell events in Alabama. 1000j of SBCAPE is almost your typical amount for tornadic events in Alabama. Everything meshes semi well, there not being a few models runs of continuity is the issue. Seems like somewhere in the deep south a relatively robust risk area will setup, shifted from Alabama Mississippi state line to south Alabama to now the Georgia Alabama state line.With uncertainties at present, will have to wait and see how model agreement pans out (or doesn't). GFS has been pretty consistent over the last several runs with modest but not insignificant instability over large parts of MS/AL/GA on Thursday afternoon (18Z pictured for the 00, 06 and 12Z runs). Would be plenty for a winter Dixie event if directional shear were to accompany.
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Per usual. LOL!Middle of the night/early Thursday morning threat here in Mississippi. Yay. Pass the caffeine.
I HAVE noticed a drop in temp after severe events. Good thing to keep an eye onAt least here in Smithville, MS, we are forecasted to have a near 20 degree temperature difference between Thursday and Friday. Near 70 Thursday and upper 40s Friday. If you are looking for a severe weather threat during Winter months, look for a temperature difference of near 20 or greater. It works some during the Spring months too but not much.
Not a fan if this.18z nam really drags that low down further than the globals. More favorbale ejection for bad weather in the deep south
What about the OTHER “parameters”?You'll be pushing 2000 j with the unstable pool of air right off the coast of Alabama (18z nam) for Thursday lol
Not many are useful right now as the Nam isn't in full range, but the consensus is that the Nam shows better evolution for a robust weather event for the deep south. Slower and further south when ejecting. Basically the two things that need to happen to escalate the threatWhat about the OTHER “parameters”?
Love your comments. Keep them coming.
The last few “events” have been north/west of me, bit I guess I’ll need to pay attention more. I believe my area has had events in January beforeNot many are useful right now as the Nam isn't in full range, but the consensus is that the Nam shows better evolution for a robust weather event for the deep south. Slower and further south when ejecting. Basically the two things that need to happen to escalate the threat
Wouldn't sleep on the Georgia threat this go aroundThe last few “events” have been north/west of me, bit I guess I’ll need to pay attention more. I believe my area has had events in January before
Yeah, that is what I am gathering. The event we had last week woke me up at 4am with a TOR in the AL counties west of me.Wouldn't sleep on the Georgia threat this go around