Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

[Fred Gossage]

00z operational GFS is a good bit slower compared to the last several runs... and is more in line with its ensembles and other models. It has this squared up fully on late AM/midday to early evening Thursday over central-east MS, middle TN/KY, much of AL, west GA.

 

[Matt Grantham]

Matt, would you mind if we could share this research/data with others? I always like to ask first if I can. If you want it kept in here I understand.

Tim, I would prefer to keep it here for now. Thanks.

 

[Timhsv]

Tim, I would prefer to keep it here for now. Thanks.

Ok, understand. You bet

 

[Timhsv]

Wow....120knts at 500mb Thursday from this evenings 00Z GFS

 

[Bryan C. Wilson]

00z operational GFS is a good bit slower compared to the last several runs... and is more in line with its ensembles and other models. It has this squared up fully on late AM/midday to early evening Thursday over central-east MS, middle TN/KY, much of AL, west GA.

And at last, I'm here for it... LOL

 

[KevinH]

00z operational GFS is a good bit slower compared to the last several runs... and is more in line with its ensembles and other models. It has this squared up fully on late AM/midday to early evening Thursday over central-east MS, middle TN/KY, much of AL, west GA.

Oh hell

 

[KevinH]

Megathread for the entire Mid-Late Feb period as this appears to be an extremely active period. Will we see 2023's first EF4+ from this? Who knows!

If the latter half of the month is supposed to be very active, it could be less confusing to have a thread for each event (unless we end up with a sequence?).

It may be difficult to know which event are referring to in comments if several events are in the same thread (again, unless we end up with a sequence, which would count as one lol)

Not liking what the models have been saying Still 6-7 days out soooooooooo I want to see if/when the models flip flop. Y’all know how Dixie behaves…… it doesn’t.

 

[Austin Dawg]

00z operational GFS is a good bit slower compared to the last several runs... and is more in line with its ensembles and other models. It has this squared up fully on late AM/midday to early evening Thursday over central-east MS, middle TN/KY, much of AL, west GA.

Glad to see you. Hate it took a threat, but I like your opinions when I am examining these possible events.

 

[JBishopwx]

..Wednesday/Thursday (days 6-7)...
Medium-range models exhibit notable spread in the evolution of a
subsequent upstream mid-level trough forecast to move into the
central states and eventually Great Lakes. However, more
consistency/agreement is becoming evident in the ECMWF/Canadian
operational runs and the ECMWF ensemble mean/GEFS ensemble, with the
operational GFS the outlier. Factors seemingly warranting an
introduction of 15% severe probabilities include the strength of the
model-forecast storm system, and ample time for appreciable
modification of the airmass over the Gulf and Gulf Coast states.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

View attachment 17705
View attachment 17706

Lol the guys at SPC went and ahead and did it lol. I'm gonna upload bham discussion.

*Nvm, they just mention the possibility of severe no breakdown or anything.

 

[Former Member 1430]

Lol the guys at SPC went and ahead and did it lol. I'm gonna upload bham discussion.

*Nvm, they just mention the possibility of severe no breakdown or anything.

I think they should have pulled the trigger. Models are consistent in the idea of a severe outbreak. I feel this one has a high ceiling and could be very bad but we will have to wait and see how models trend over the next few days

 

[KevinH]

I think they should have pulled the trigger. Models are consistent in the idea of a severe outbreak. I feel this one has a high ceiling and could be very bad but we will have to wait and see how models trend over the next few days

Pulled what trigger?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Pulled what trigger?

Pulled the trigger on putting a day 7 risk out.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Pulled what trigger?

For spc to highlight a large area perhaps a day earlier

 

[KevinH]

Pulled the trigger on putting a day 7 risk out.

Oh I read Edith’s comment wrong. I’m thinking “Edith, they DID pull the trigger” lol But Edith was just saying that they agree..

I literally just woke up and came straight to these comments. Maybe I’ll go to sleep again SMH ha

Let’s see where things are Monday and Tuesday!

 

[MichelleH]

Lol the guys at SPC went and ahead and did it lol. I'm gonna upload bham discussion.

*Nvm, they just mention the possibility of severe no breakdown or anything.

Hazardous weather outlook for BMX does already have a 1 out of 5 for tornadoes Thursday and mentions tornadoes in the text. This far out, that's significant.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Hazardous weather outlook for BMX does already have a 1 out of 5 for tornadoes Thursday and mentions tornadoes in the text. This far out, that's significant.

Memphis already mentions severe weather , but say little far out to go on finer details

 

[Clancy]

Left: CIPS calculated probability for at least 1 SVR event within 110 km (~70 miles) for period D6-8.
Right: CIPS calculated probability for at least 1 tornado report within 110 km (~70 miles) for period D6-8.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Left: CIPS calculated probability for at least 1 SVR event within 110 km (~70 miles) for period D6-8.
Right: CIPS calculated probability for at least 1 tornado report within 110 km (~70 miles) for period D6-8.

got Any top analogs from cips on the Time frame?

 

[xJownage]

One thing i'm noticing is VERY strong advection of dry air into the warm sector. When I first looked at the euro I thought this level of dry air was unreasonable, but there's decent model agreement for just that - see the below gifs.

A strong dry air intrusion aloft would probably be a pretty bad scenario for dixie, considering this dry air will often clean out the warm sector to both foster destabilization and keep storms relatively discrete. In addition, it appears this dry air starts mixing out as it gets to the warm sector, and it's not that hot either, meaning getting a very strong cap out of it doesn't seem highly likely at this time.