Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

[KevinH]

 

[KevinH]

Buckle up over the next few weeks.

I’m sorry did you say weeks?

 

[Matt Grantham]

The past few years, I have been working on the MJO as it relates to U.S. tornado outbreaks and more specifically, Alabama. The MJO has been studied by others as well, but still there is much to discover. I was able to anticipate the outbreaks in March 2021 and April 2022 with my own method. Sometimes the MJO yields very little if the pattern is overwhelmed with cold air especially in winter. However, the subtropical ridging has been very prominent through the fall and winter, keeping the warmth closer to the coastlines. The NAO has been neutral to positive which promotes a progressive pattern with little chance for cold air to hang around. The last 3 MJO propagations yielded tornado outbreaks across the country. Each of those started with outbreaks as the MJO entered Phase 8, which we will be coming up on around the 16th-18th. We have another MJO propagation underway and it is nearly perfectly timed with the system next week. The door could then be wide open as the MJO moves around to Phases 1, 2 and 3 over the next few weeks into early March.

I won't get too specific explaining how to look at this, but just know the greens and blues are enhanced areas of 200 mb divergence circling the globe, and browns and oranges are the enhanced areas of 200 mb convergence. The phase diagram tracks the progression of the 200 mb divergence as it moves eastward around the globe. Phases 8, 2, and 3 are the worst for the BMX area based on early indications.

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Wait…… Fred AND Matt posting at the same time???? Uh oh…. I’m dating myself, but I’m having flashbacks of a scene from the original Lost in Space series where the robot is saying “Danger Will Robinson….Danger!!!!”.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The past few years, I have been working on the MJO as it relates to U.S. tornado outbreaks and more specifically, Alabama. The MJO has been studied by others as well, but still there is much to discover. I was able to anticipate the outbreaks in March 2021 and April 2022 with my own method. Sometimes the MJO yields very little if the pattern is overwhelmed with cold air especially in winter. However, the subtropical ridging has been very prominent through the fall and winter, keeping the warmth closer to the coastlines. The NAO has been neutral to positive which promotes a progressive pattern with little chance for cold air to hang around. The last 3 MJO propagations yielded tornado outbreaks across the country. Each of those started with outbreaks as the MJO entered Phase 8, which we will be coming up on around the 16th-18th. We have another MJO propagation underway and it is nearly perfectly timed with the system next week. The door could then be wide open as the MJO moves around to Phases 1, 2 and 3 over the next few weeks into early March.

I won't get too specific explaining how to look at this, but just know the greens and blues are enhanced areas of 200 mb divergence circling the globe, and browns and oranges are the enhanced areas of 200 mb convergence. The phase diagram tracks the progression of the 200 mb divergence as it moves eastward around the globe. Phases 8, 2, and 3 are the worst for the BMX area based on early indications.

Looks like a pretty strong 8 phase. For this upcoming event based on your diagram.

 

[Matt Grantham]

Looks like a pretty strong 8 phase. For this upcoming event based on your diagram.

I haven't looked at the impact of the amplitude. I am not sure how much it matters other than you need at least some strength to the wave.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I haven't looked at the impact of the amplitude. I am not sure how much it matters other than you need at least some strength to the wave.

Didn't realize it but looking. At the 2021 March pic. The MJO greens lines up well with the two outbreaks.

So if I'm catching what your saying based of past mjo trends and patterns this MJO phase for next week and moving forward favors synoptic setups for a significant severe event in the bmx area? 2021 tornado outbreaks where some very big time events

These two events lined up with the strong green MJO events in your diagrams.
I'll have to look into MJO phases never payed attention; heard about it a few times before though.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Didn't realize it but looking. At the 2021 March pic. The MJO greens lines up well with the two outbreaks.

So if I'm catching what your saying based of past mjo trends and patterns this MJO phase for next week and moving forward favors synoptic setups for a significant severe event in the bmx area? 2021 tornado outbreaks where some very big time events

These two events lined up with the strong green MJO events in your diagrams. View attachment 17698View attachment 17700
I'll have to look into MJO phases never payed attention; heard about it a few times before though.

Both had much higher ceilings than they ended up being. Specifically 3/17/21 was being compared to 4/27/11 initially IIRC, and I think 3/25 too.

 

[Matt Grantham]

Didn't realize it but looking. At the 2021 March pic. The MJO greens lines up well with the two outbreaks.

So if I'm catching what your saying based of past mjo trends and patterns this MJO phase for next week and moving forward favors synoptic setups for a significant severe event in the bmx area? 2021 tornado outbreaks where some very big time events

These two events lined up with the strong green MJO events in your diagrams.

The location of any particular tornado outbreak depends on the larger scale pattern and the time of year. The phases don't necessarily tell us anything about outbreak locations. If this was May, we would be expecting increased tornado probabilities to our north and west. Outbreaks appear to be favored between the center of the green/blue wave and center of the brown/orange wave, which corresponds to essentially one half of the phase diagram (8, 1, 2, 3). Funny how it seems to correspond with a global scale "couplet" much like you would see on radar. There were many deadly outbreaks that occurred as the brown/orange area moved through such as 4/27/11, 3/25/21, 3/3/19, etc...

 

[Matt Grantham]

Example of Phase 8 compared to Euro forecast for Feb 16th.

 

[JPWX]

The past few years, I have been working on the MJO as it relates to U.S. tornado outbreaks and more specifically, Alabama. The MJO has been studied by others as well, but still there is much to discover. I was able to anticipate the outbreaks in March 2021 and April 2022 with my own method. Sometimes the MJO yields very little if the pattern is overwhelmed with cold air especially in winter. However, the subtropical ridging has been very prominent through the fall and winter, keeping the warmth closer to the coastlines. The NAO has been neutral to positive which promotes a progressive pattern with little chance for cold air to hang around. The last 3 MJO propagations yielded tornado outbreaks across the country. Each of those started with outbreaks as the MJO entered Phase 8, which we will be coming up on around the 16th-18th. We have another MJO propagation underway and it is nearly perfectly timed with the system next week. The door could then be wide open as the MJO moves around to Phases 1, 2 and 3 over the next few weeks into early March.

I won't get too specific explaining how to look at this, but just know the greens and blues are enhanced areas of 200 mb divergence circling the globe, and browns and oranges are the enhanced areas of 200 mb convergence. The phase diagram tracks the progression of the 200 mb divergence as it moves eastward around the globe. Phases 8, 2, and 3 are the worst for the BMX area based on early indications.

Very interesting. I took all the years that were either Neutral, La Nina, Modoki La Nina, El Nino, and Modoki El Nino and compared it to how many tornadoes occurred in Spring those years for MS. From what I found, Neutral ENSO tends to support more tornadic activity next to La Nina. The exception to that was Spring 2020 where MS just had 61 tornadoes. I just used the Neutral conditions since that's what we're headed into.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Im curious as to whether the guys at SPC will put up a risk area for that timeframe in the next update.

 

[Timhsv]

The past few years, I have been working on the MJO as it relates to U.S. tornado outbreaks and more specifically, Alabama. The MJO has been studied by others as well, but still there is much to discover. I was able to anticipate the outbreaks in March 2021 and April 2022 with my own method. Sometimes the MJO yields very little if the pattern is overwhelmed with cold air especially in winter. However, the subtropical ridging has been very prominent through the fall and winter, keeping the warmth closer to the coastlines. The NAO has been neutral to positive which promotes a progressive pattern with little chance for cold air to hang around. The last 3 MJO propagations yielded tornado outbreaks across the country. Each of those started with outbreaks as the MJO entered Phase 8, which we will be coming up on around the 16th-18th. We have another MJO propagation underway and it is nearly perfectly timed with the system next week. The door could then be wide open as the MJO moves around to Phases 1, 2 and 3 over the next few weeks into early March.

I won't get too specific explaining how to look at this, but just know the greens and blues are enhanced areas of 200 mb divergence circling the globe, and browns and oranges are the enhanced areas of 200 mb convergence. The phase diagram tracks the progression of the 200 mb divergence as it moves eastward around the globe. Phases 8, 2, and 3 are the worst for the BMX area based on early indications.

Outstanding research Matt. I want to dive into further and learn more.

 

[JBishopwx]

Jackson MS AFD this afternoon.

From Jackson NWS:

The 3rd system is now just into the official forecast. In a general
sense, there`s variability because it is in the day 6/7 periods and often we see potent system have a range of solutions. But, even with the varying solutions and ways things could evolve, a common theme is for steep lapse rates to be in place...moisture return is quite good with a warm frontal feature and elements of convection breaks out with the warm front and eventually the cold front. Good low level moisture over steep lapse rates support severe storms in ageneral sense. If this signal holds, I would expect an outlook fairly soon. More on this in coming forecasts.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Jackson MS AFD this afternoon.

It'd be the 1st day 6-7 outlook for the deep south since the March 2021 outbreaks I think.

 

[JBishopwx]

It'd be the 1st day 6-7 outlook for the deep south since the March 2021 outbreaks I think.

Paging @JPWX lol

 

[Fred Gossage]

Paging @JPWX lol

Yeah, very much not. There was a Day 6 outlook on the board for November 4th and a Day 7 outlook up for November 29th. That's without me even trying to look at anything in December or January or anything from back earlier in 2022.

 

[JBishopwx]

Yeah, very much not. There was a Day 6 outlook on the board for November 4th and a Day 7 outlook up for November 29th. That's without me even trying to look at anything in December or January or anything from back earlier in 2022.

Yeah, was pretty sure it was very recent.

 

[Timhsv]

I'll be around tonight to diagnose and post what I see. The fact that I've been quiet for as long as I have here lately but I'm suddenly not quiet now, that alone, should get your immediate attention if you're one of my long-time followers around here...

Fred was good in finally meeting you Saturday at UAH after all these years. Wished we had more time to chat, but I know you were busy

 

[Timhsv]

The past few years, I have been working on the MJO as it relates to U.S. tornado outbreaks and more specifically, Alabama. The MJO has been studied by others as well, but still there is much to discover. I was able to anticipate the outbreaks in March 2021 and April 2022 with my own method. Sometimes the MJO yields very little if the pattern is overwhelmed with cold air especially in winter. However, the subtropical ridging has been very prominent through the fall and winter, keeping the warmth closer to the coastlines. The NAO has been neutral to positive which promotes a progressive pattern with little chance for cold air to hang around. The last 3 MJO propagations yielded tornado outbreaks across the country. Each of those started with outbreaks as the MJO entered Phase 8, which we will be coming up on around the 16th-18th. We have another MJO propagation underway and it is nearly perfectly timed with the system next week. The door could then be wide open as the MJO moves around to Phases 1, 2 and 3 over the next few weeks into early March.

I won't get too specific explaining how to look at this, but just know the greens and blues are enhanced areas of 200 mb divergence circling the globe, and browns and oranges are the enhanced areas of 200 mb convergence. The phase diagram tracks the progression of the 200 mb divergence as it moves eastward around the globe. Phases 8, 2, and 3 are the worst for the BMX area based on early indications.

Matt, would you mind if we could share this research/data with others? I always like to ask first if I can. If you want it kept in here I understand.