Severe weather Feb 10-13th

[UncleJuJu98]

Tonight looks bonkers for Texas lol.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Tonight looks bonkers for Texas lol.

Most of the UH swaths depicted appear to be north of the richer moisture (although after Thursday, I'm not sure what that even means anymore, lol). Sunday in Alabama though is a different story...

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Lol I know it's the FV3 but it looks like April 27th on crack with all the supercells for Sunday into monday. Good grief get off the rocker FV3 , I wish I could just share the gif of your 30 through 60 but my phone is being weird.

*Here we go

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Again, taking point soundings in the vicinity of those simulated supercells over TX/LA, they're either displaced from the richer moisture or in an environment with fairly straight low-level hodgraphs. However by later afternoon into evening Sunday, that begins to change, mostly over AL. For example:

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Just looking at the 15z rap its very impressive on storm relative velocity for central and South Alabama Sunday evening falls in line with the HRRR in those terms. Around 350-450 3km and 200-350 1km that's really good. Instability is not as impressive but it's in the range of around 500-900 Sbcape which maybe underselling it a tad. The winds are backed really well looking at soundings lapse rates are around 6 or so not the best but it'll do, RAP shows storms being kindve elevated so will see with that.

RAP shows more activity near the coast so we will have to watch trends on convection.

 

[Clancy]

Lol I know it's the FV3 but it looks like April 27th on crack with all the supercells for Sunday into monday. Good grief get off the rocker FV3 , I wish I could just share the gif of your 30 through 60 but my phone is being weird.

*Here we go
View attachment 23820

On one hand, the CAMs are depicting more-or-less constant convection from Sunday night into Monday evening, with a severe threat during pretty much all of it. On the other hand, I have to wonder if that will zap energy and moisture from the area. Curiously, both instability and moisture are plentiful on the models throughout the entire period, though how well they are really handling that aspect of the parameter space, I am unsure.

 

[Clancy]

Just under 30 minutes ago, from East-Central Texas.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JBishopwx]

Tug to the north for tomorrow in regards to the slight risk

 

[Clancy]

Forecast from Trey for this event.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

No way a outflow boundary doesn't lay down somewhere in south south central Alabama with the 18z HRRR run.

Also the 18z HRRR looks like it has a meso low developing aiding in windfields for Sunday evening in Alabama. Big ole yikes.

*Less updraft swaths but a pretty good environment and shows what looks like supercells firing over a wide area.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Classic hodos for south and south central Alabama. Tommorow afternoon. No vbv either.

 

[Clancy]

No way a outflow boundary doesn't lay down somewhere in south south central Alabama with the 18z HRRR run.

Also the 18z HRRR looks like it has a meso low developing aiding in windfields for Sunday evening in Alabama. Big ole yikes.

*Less updraft swaths but a pretty good environment and shows what looks like supercells firing over a wide area.

Seems like that Sunday afternoon rain might set up a boundary on the 18Z HRRR.

 

[Clancy]

18Z HRRR says early morning squall, followed by some clearing and mixed-mode convection from mid-morning into the early afternoon. The window between rounds allows for ample atmospheric recovery, per this run.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18Z HRRR says early morning squall, followed by some clearing and mixed-mode convection from mid-morning into the early afternoon. The window between rounds allows for ample atmospheric recovery, per this run.
View attachment 23826

Man I'm not gunna have the stamina to keep up with it all if this is true haha.

No way the superbowl is gunna be aired in Alabama tomorrow lol. I feel like we have a big day tommorow

 

[JPWX]

18Z HRRR says early morning squall, followed by some clearing and mixed-mode convection from mid-morning into the early afternoon. The window between rounds allows for ample atmospheric recovery, per this run.
View attachment 23826

That squall line is nasty. If I were SPC, I would extend the Slight Risk northward more into North MS (particularly Northeast MS) adding a 30% damaging wind threat (possibly SIG hatch) along with a 5% tornado probability.

 

[JPWX]

Man I'm not gunna have the stamina to keep up with it all if this is true haha.

No way the superbowl is gunna be aired in Alabama tomorrow lol. I feel like we have a big day tommorow

PUT MY GAME BACK ON!!!! LOL!

 

[Clancy]

That squall line is nasty. If I were SPC, I would extend the Slight Risk northward more into North MS (particularly Northeast MS) adding a 30% damaging wind threat (possibly SIG hatch) along with a 5% tornado probability.

A possible saving grace with the squall line is it may be mostly elevated, so that could keep the tornado and wind threat limited somewhat, but if it rides the boundary right it may exceed expectations.

 

[warneagle]

PUT MY GAME BACK ON!!!! LOL!

If I were a TV meteorologist my social media DMs would be locked down like Fort Knox tomorrow lol

 

[akt1985]

The good thing about the Huntsville DMA is if there are tornado warnings in that market during the Super Bowl, WHNT could move the game or severe weather coverage to sister station WHDF.