CheeselandSkies
Member
70/60 there with a south wind. Could certainly do something.
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Severe weather Feb 10-13th
- Thread starter UncleJuJu98
- Start date
70/60 there with a south wind. Could certainly do something.
warneagle
Member
Not much in the way of a hook at the moment but Hot Springs is fixing to get some hail.
warneagle
Member
Looks like we got a constructive merger there?
Clancy
Member
Possible TDS.
warneagle
Member
Looks like it yeah.
Clancy
Member
Reflectivity debris ball, CC drop and very strong couplet visible on KZLK.
Clancy
Member
Now over East End.
Clancy
Member
00Z NAM with a rain shield that could disrupt destabilization on Monday afternoon. Nevertheless, an at least limited threat would persist for all hazards even with the rain.
- Thread starter
- #31
Dude Texas looks crazy on the 00z HRRR
- Thread starter
- #33
Sunday:
- Moderator
- #35
Snipped from this morning's AFD from BMX regarding Sunday night:
However, several periods of rain/thunderstorms are expected across much of the warm sector, which could limit destabilization and/or cut us off. With that said, it wouldn`t take much destabilization to support a few severe storms and potential tornadoes overnight Sunday into Monday morning given the upper level support and overall forcing.
However, several periods of rain/thunderstorms are expected across much of the warm sector, which could limit destabilization and/or cut us off. With that said, it wouldn`t take much destabilization to support a few severe storms and potential tornadoes overnight Sunday into Monday morning given the upper level support and overall forcing.
- Thread starter
- #36
12z HRRR goes hard for central Mississippi and central Alabama. Very impressive.
Seems to be a substantial boundary maybe that enhances shear along or near it. This maybe a two day event for Alabama Sunday afternoon and possibly Monday morning. Will see. Not sure if it's distinctly a tornado threat or what, would love to see soundings on long range hrrr but it's not letting me.
Seems to be a substantial boundary maybe that enhances shear along or near it. This maybe a two day event for Alabama Sunday afternoon and possibly Monday morning. Will see. Not sure if it's distinctly a tornado threat or what, would love to see soundings on long range hrrr but it's not letting me.
Clancy
Member
Looks like a hard boundary of moisture and instability. Really focuses the activity on that line.
- Thread starter
- #38
Definitely, those can definitely perform. Sheesh there's gunna be unhappy Superbowl watchers in Alabama and Mississippi now lol.
This run changes the game it's been hinting at this for awhile now it seems but, that boundary will back winds a decent bit I assume along that line increasing a localized threat along the i20 corridor possibly. didn't expect to start my morning with this run lol
* Of course this is just one run of the HRRR out of many models so I'll hold my horses on expectations lol
Clancy
Member
Also looks like it may be only the first of a few rounds of storms, though how the others might play out is unclear from the 12Z run.
Clancy
Member
CIPS and CSU both agree on elevated risk for severe storms Sunday and Monday, with 10% spaces on both. SREF parameter corridors have increased substantially. HRRR 12Z sounding from near Anniston, AL Sunday evening attached plus HRRR UH streaks.
