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April 2024 Weather Video of the Month Post your nominations now!
Severe Weather 2024
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
JPWX
Member
- Thread starter
- #883
KevinH
Member
I smell a thread (not by ME though…. For now lol)
Clancy
Member
Some of the more impressive values I've seen this year, though of course only time will tell how potent it'll actually be. But yeah, verbatim it looks pretty substantial.
JPWX
Member
Right. Either way though heavy rain/flash flooding looks like the primary concern for the time being.
ashtonlemleywx
Member
It seems that low will occlude and break off over the Southwestern states like the GFS and Euro are depicting on the 500mb.....it has consistently been depicted run to run.
I still have a lot of uncertainty of how it will interact with that subtropical jet and eject.
Somebody with meteorology knowledge help me understand.
I still have a lot of uncertainty of how it will interact with that subtropical jet and eject.
Somebody with meteorology knowledge help me understand.
Least it's on Friday and the weekend.
I may make a thread later today
I may make a thread later today
Justin Hindman Hindy
Member
pritchlaw
Member
Spann is saying right now wind profiles show no tornado threat for North and Central Alabama (ABC 33/40 coverage area) on Friday.
Clancy
Member
Modelling has trended wind fields away from a more robust tornado threat, although there would nevertheless be a risk for damaging winds and hail in this scenario (sounding SE of BMX).
- Thread starter
- #891
KevinH
Member
Calm down… it’s too soon
Hey now , my severe wx prediction skills are impeccable I know when there needs to be a thread
haha
CheeselandSkies
Member
NAM came in rather hot for the Midwest on Thursday...
Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
Clancy
Member
From Trey.
warneagle
Member
Good to know we’re not the only ones who have been getting dumped on. This was along the channel in DC on Sunday (that railing is not supposed to be in the water). Last thing we need is another big rain event.
Attachments
Clancy
Member
Well at least those geese seem to be enjoying the bountiful rains.
CheeselandSkies
Member
18Z held serve and even upped the ante a little bit with the surface thermos, although I think the 12Z looked slightly better at 500mb. Not really sold on this solution yet but certainly something to keep an eye on.
NWS Quad Cities not really sold, don't even mention the NAM solutions in their afternoon AFD. Just hail potential Wednesday night and mainly a rainfall event for Thursday.
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JPWX
Member
Mrgolfman7070
Member
I read on Twitter about the Nam and gfs slowing the system and more amplified with recent runs. Dry air punching in as well with mid level jet and low level jet increasing. Would that increase the tornado threat?
CheeselandSkies
Member
Yes that would especially the NAM solutions I mentioned above. Still need to see a few more runs consistent with that idea before sounding the alarm.
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