Severe Weather 2023

[JPWX]

Snippet from NWS Memphis Morning AFD: "
Strong upper level dynamics featuring a 125kt upper
level jet and a 50kt LLJ will overspread the Midsouth late
Thursday into Friday. This should provide more than adequate lift
for showers late in the work week. Instability looks marginal at
best, but probably enough for at least a few strikes of lightning."

Insert hand over face emoji.

 

[Clancy]

 

[TH2002]

If any of you are interested, my article on the history of North MS tornadoes has been posted online. I do weather articles for my local county newspaper now.

Monroe Journal

Local news and sports

www.djournal.com

Paywalled

 

[JPWX]

Here it is. My article. @JBishopwx @TH2002 @UncleJuJu98 @MichelleH @Tennie @tennessee storm chaser @Clancy @Austin Dawg

 

[JPWX]

All 12z Global Models have a system around late next week and another one right after that around the 4th. Both will have to monitored for severe weather and heavy rain/flash flood potential.

 

[TH2002]

Here it is. My article. @JBishopwx @TH2002 @UncleJuJu98 @MichelleH @Tennie @tennessee storm chaser @Clancy @Austin Dawg

Took the liberty of typing it up and making it a bit easier to read:

Tornado statistics indicate a high average for the county
By Meteorologist Johnny Parker (@JPWX on TalkWeather.com)

Here in the Deep South and Mississippi, there are two peak tornado seasons. However, tornadoes can occur in any given month, if the overall atmospheric environment is supportive. First is Spring from March through May then a secondary peak in Fall from October through December.

Here are the averages for each month based on 1998 thru 2022:
Mississippi average tornadoes for October (1998 thru 2022): 3
Mississippi average tornadoes for November (1998 thru 2022): 5
Mississippi average tornadoes for December (1998 thru 2022): 5
The 30-year (1993-2022) average count for Mississippi: 54
The 20-year (2003-2022) average count for Mississippi: 68

We note a rise in the totals, which can be attributed to better radar/satellite data and better ways of reporting (cell phones, social media, etc.).

Mississippi has the highest average annual tornado per 10,000 square miles per state (2003-2022) with 13. Based on data from 1950 through 2022, Monroe and Lee counties, in particular, average 21-40 tornadoes per year. Mississippi is only second behind Kentucky (75) with the most fatality occurrences at 50 based on the last 10 years (2013-2022). Based on 30-year climatology (1986-2015), Northeast Mississippi witnesses 3.5 to 4 days per decade of EF2+ tornado days within 25 miles of a point and 5+ days per century of EF4+ tornado days within 25 miles of a point.

From 1800 to 2023, North Mississippi has had 662 tornadoes. I note that this number could be higher than that given the lack of data and reporting pre-1950.

From 1800 to 2023, North Mississippi has had 151 tornadoes occur during the morning hours, while 480 tornadoes occurred during the afternoon/evening hours.

The highest tornado count by county in North Mississippi are both Lee and Monroe counties with each having 54 tornadoes.

The lowest tornado count by county in North Mississippi is Benton County with 15 tornadoes. The lowest tornado average by county in North Mississippi is also Benton County with 1.3% occurrence rate.

The highest tornado average by county in North Mississippi are both Lee and Monroe counties with 4.5% occurrence rate with Alcorn County having the second highest occurrence rate at 2.25%.

Interesting Facts:
The only two counties in North Mississippi that have had one or more tornadoes rated EF5 are Monroe and Lee counties. Monroe County has had two EF5 tornadoes. First was the EF-5 on April 3, 1974 (the first Super Outbreak), and the second EF-5 was the Smithville tornado on April 27, 2011 (the second Super Outbreak).

The most tornadoes in a single 24-hour period in the U.S. are 216 on April 27, 2011. THe 2011 Super Outbreak produced a total of 360 tornadoes, which was a record for a continuous outbreak. The 1974 Super Outbreak produced a record 23 EF4 rated tornadoes and a record 7 EF5 rated tornadoes.

The largest Fall tornado outbreak occurred in November 1992 with 95 tornadoes occurring in a record 41 hours. Hurricane Ivan (2004) produced a record 120 tornadoes during its landfall on the Gulf Coast.

April 2011 produced a record-setting 773 tornadoes, breaking the previous record of 542 in May 2003. The year 2004 produced the highest number of tornadoes in the United States with 1,817 confirmed tornadoes.

The deadliest tornado globally occurred in Bangladesh on April 26, 1989 which led to 1,300 fatalities. The deadliest tornado in U.S. history was the March 18, 1925 Tri-State tornado, which led to 695 fatalities. It also holds the record for the longest path length in U.S. history at 219 miles.
The costliest tornado in U.S. history was the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado, which totaled $2.8 billion (2011 USD) or $3.64 billion (2023 USD).

The deadliest tornado in the state of Mississippi was the May 7, 1840 Natchez F5/EF5 tornado, which led to more than 300 fatalities and $1.26 million in damages.

The highest officially measured tornadic wind-speed was during the Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 3, 1999 at 301 mph. The longest tracked tornadic supercell on record occurred on March 12, 2006, which tracked up to 790 miles across six states in 17.5 hours. The widest tornado on record is the El Reno, Oklahoma tornado on May 31, 2013 with a width of 2.6 miles. The highest forward speed of a torando was 88.65 mph on December 15, 2021.

The United States has not had another EF5 rated tornado since May 20, 2013, and that continues.

The widest tornado in Mississippi was the Covington County tornado on April 12, 2019 at 2.25 miles. The longest tracked tornado in Mississippi was the March 3, 1966 Candlestick Park Tornado with a path length of 203 miles.

The largest hailstone ever measured in the United States was on July 23, 2010 in Vivian, South Dakota. It measured up to 7.87 inches in diameter (larger than a bowling ball) and weighed 1.9375 pounds. The costliest hailstorm in US history occurred in Phoenix, Arizona on Oct. 5, 2010, leading to $2.8 billion in damages.

The largest hailstone in the state of Mississippi on record fell on April 10, 1962 in Lafayette County. It was 5 inches in diameter, the size equivalent of a CD/DVD.

 

[Clancy]

GFS shows the late-week system followed up by another near the start of the week of 12/3. Probably worth watching, could be a situation where the first system primes the environment for the second.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Right on queue just like this last spring lol.

 

[KevinH]

I will NEVER understand this.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Seems like the GFS Wants a big MCS near the gulf. Which would hinder a bigger threat to the north. Not so optimistic on the 1st threat later this week.

 

[KevinH]

Seems like the GFS Wants a big MCS near the gulf. Which would hinder a bigger threat to the north. Not so optimistic on the 1st threat later this week.

When you say not so optimistic…

Do you mean for a bigger threat or less of a threat? lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

When you say not so optimistic…

Do you mean for a bigger threat or less of a threat? lol

Not so optimistic of there being any threat past the gulf lol.

 

[KevinH]

Not so optimistic of there being any threat past the gulf lol.

Ah ok

Ha ha

 

[JBishopwx]

No CIPS/CSU for D5/6, but CSU has solid analogs for D4/ Thursday: https://www.weather.gov/lsx/svrcomp

Jackson's AFD pretty much lessens the threat for Friday:
Guidance has come into better agreement on the positioning and timing of this feature, however the ECMWF and CMC are still slightly quicker, while the GFS hangs back. Corresponding low level response is denoted by >1 inch PWAT and 60-65 degree
dewpoints across the Pine Belt. In general, conditions look to be more favorable over the ArkLaTex, but could impact our area shouldmoisture hold on long enough. 0-6km shear magnitude of 50-60kt, and 0-3km of 30-40kt amid 60-65 degree dewpoint and 200-300 MLCAPE could be supportive of potentially stronger and more organized storms, with a particular focus in the Pine Belt

 

[KevinH]

No CIPS/CSU for D5/6, but CSU has solid analogs for D4/ Thursday: https://www.weather.gov/lsx/svrcomp

Jackson's AFD pretty much lessens the threat for Friday:
Guidance has come into better agreement on the positioning and timing of this feature, however the ECMWF and CMC are still slightly quicker, while the GFS hangs back. Corresponding low level response is denoted by >1 inch PWAT and 60-65 degree
dewpoints across the Pine Belt. In general, conditions look to be more favorable over the ArkLaTex, but could impact our area shouldmoisture hold on long enough. 0-6km shear magnitude of 50-60kt, and 0-3km of 30-40kt amid 60-65 degree dewpoint and 200-300 MLCAPE could be supportive of potentially stronger and more organized storms, with a particular focus in the Pine Belt

I like this little comparison website. If they don’t already the SPC should add it.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

@JPWX the link to this was in my e-mail from Tornado Talk today.

Remembering the Super Outbreak – Tornado Talk

www.tornadotalk.com

 

[JPWX]

At some point, in my list of wx projects, I'm gonna do PowerPoints on tornado outbreaks especially the ones that I can include radar and satellite data. Does anyone have any radar archive data already saved from any big outbreak? I would like to try to avoid having to go through the radar archives if someone already has it handy. I'm not looking for any particular outbreak. Just like from the 2008 Super Tuesday outbreak, the Jarell, TX tornado, etc. I'll let y'all know when I start, but just wanted to see if any of you has any radar data on hand before I started digging myself. Thank you in advance!

 

[Taylor Campbell]

All models came together several days ago on a severe threat for this region of East Texas to LA. In addition, they have become progessively worst. Hopefully, a forecaster at SPC steps it up correctly.

 

[KevinH]

All models came together several days ago on a severe threat for this region of East Texas to LA. In addition, they have become progessively worst. Hopefully, a forecaster at SPC steps it up correctly.

Well they did highlight D3 (11/30) today…

Or are you talking about a different time period?