Severe Weather 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

12z Nam has weakened the low some more. But I'd expect a pendulum swing back a little more to the deeper side, probably shooting around for a 1000-1004 mb low if I had to guess. Looks like a messy all hazards event. Southern half of Mississippi and Louisiana would be my guess for a hot spot for surface based convection with the northern Mississippi area being elevated.

 

[Clancy]

BMX not particularly impressed by model data, suggesting a low-end threat for QLCS tors and winds mostly for the southwestern portions of their forecast area.

The mid and upper-level trough and associated cold front will
approach the area Monday night into Tuesday, with significant
uncertainty as to whether a shortwave will round the base of the
trough or if it will remain positively tilted. This has
ramifications for whether there are any height falls ahead of the
front and whether or not a surface low deepens to our northwest
which will determine the degree of low-level mass response. What
models currently agree on, however, is that as is typical for this
time of year shear will be high but instability will be weak. An
easterly component to surface winds due to high pressure over New
England will be attempting to pinch off the warm sector with time,
with a tendency for the 850mb jet axis to try to out-run the warm
sector. Will continue to indicate a conditional marginal severe risk
across our far western and southern counties, which will be
conditional on whether parameters can line up just ahead of the
QLCS. Risks will include gusty to isolated damaging winds, with
isolated weak tornadoes possible if the QLCS can remain or become
surface-based before low-level shear weakens through the day on
Tuesday. Some 25 to 30 mph gradient wind gusts will be possible as
well. Probabilities of at least an inch of beneficial rainfall
are also high across much of the area.

 

[JBishopwx]

Really surprised we haven't started a thread for Monday...

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Really surprised we haven't started a thread for Monday...

Lol last time I made one when they had a day 4 threat I was told it was too early or something along those lines lol. I'll make one

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Thread 'November 19-21st severe threat' https://talkweather.com/threads/november-19-21st-severe-threat.2203/

 

[KevinH]

Copied from my laptop, so that may be why there isn't a preview.

I have an issue with this too, and I copy/paste the URL directly from X

 

[KevinH]

Hardly ever get discrete supercells in the winter, it's typically broken QCLS tornado events. Which seems the probable route. Even a regular QCLS can produce low end tornado outbreaks sometimes.
Not that this will turn out as one. But I think we should keep our eyes peeled most winter events are messy and more QCLS'esk. And this one looks to fit the bill.

Really think the best area will likely be Mississippi. Once that sun falls the little instability left in the atmosphere will drop off a cliff. If this system can get deeper you may be looking at dynamic cooling which will help to destabilize things a bit more, but in the winter there's not a whole lot to work with in terms of any substantial instability.


*Although looking at the 00z Nam it looks like the main gist of the storms come through at night in Mississippi and still have a decent bit of instability (for a winter event) in place.

I would not be surprised if this is how this even plays out.

 

[KevinH]

The Enigma Outbreak of 1884 was in February and there have been lots of higher-end, destructive tornadoes during the winter months. They don't really "follow the rules."

Exactly.

Dixie typically says: “eff your rules” while flipping us off SMH

 

[KevinH]

BMX not particularly impressed by model data, suggesting a low-end threat for QLCS tors and winds mostly for the southwestern portions of their forecast area.

Until models shift east lol

 

[KevinH]

Lol last time I made one when they had a day 4 threat I was told it was too early or something along those lines lol. I'll make one

Confidence from the SPC and agreement among the models were not that high at that time.

There wasn’t a lot of “chatter” about it either lol

It’s tricky for sure.

 

[Clancy]

 

[KevinH]

How do you put links in your posts? Several people can’t get the previews to work ;/

 

[Clancy]

How do you put links in your posts? Several people can’t get the previews to work ;/

Honestly I'm not sure, I just copy the link and they seem to work most of the time. I did notice everything whose domain started with "twitter.com" instead of "x.com" seems to work better.

 

[KevinH]

Honestly I'm not sure, I just copy the link and they seem to work most of the time. I did notice everything whose domain started with "twitter.com" instead of "x.com" seems to work better.

I noticed that too (*cough @JayF) but from the app, the links are always x.com :/

 

[JBishopwx]

Just a heads up...

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Just a heads up...

O no. May not be good time be down. Ummm

 

[JBishopwx]

Just a heads up...

Also, New Orleans/Slidell radar will be down for a few months as it gets ready to move to the new Hammond location the first of December.

 

[KevinH]

Just a heads up...

Is it just me, or do they always make these upgrades in the middle of a severe season?

No matter how far in advance these upgrades are planned, BMX, SPC, and NOAA all know when the peak severe seasons are in the south.. ijs

 

[MichelleH]

Two weeks?!? Oof.

 

[JBishopwx]

Is it just me, or do they always make these upgrades in the middle of a severe season?

No matter how far in advance these upgrades are planned, BMX, SPC, and NOAA all know when the peak severe seasons are in the south.. ijs

Agree, they should have moved it out during the dry spell here.