Severe Threat - Feb 27-28th, 2024

[ashtonlemleywx]

We had pictures, scraps of paper (receipts), and shingles in our yard. It smelled like we were in the middle of a pine forest clearing outside. I live about a hour north of Louisville in north Lowndes County.

I was in position in Noxubee county to intercept this tornado on April 28, 2014. I was the first to pull up in a open field near Brooksville. A few minutes later Sean Casey pulls up in the TIV and parks next to me. A few more mins goes by and we start getting hit by debris fall. The debris was very granulated pieces of shingles, acorns, leaves, wood, etc.

Haha my laptop decided to crash that day so I was using the old school NWS flash player radar on my iPhone 4 with 3g data. Oh, how times have changed.

 

[Clancy]

If things continue to trend as currently modelled, would expect the Midwest and parts of the middle MS basin to have the greatest risk, especially considering the position of the low. CSU probs generally in-line, with local maximums from far east OK into far west IN.

 

[Weatherphreak]

I don’t mind the low 70s temps and not getting any severe weather out of this system. There will be plenty of chances the next 2 months.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Dang man, it looks like weenie hut jr in early march haha!

 

[Clancy]

Dang man, it looks like weenie hut jr in early march haha!

I've seen GEFS probs sometimes get skewed by rogue model data, so I definitely wouldn't take that at face value, though the whole period looks generally active.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah this event the Midwest is getting all the smoke lol.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

6Z GFS presents the area roughly near Ottawa-Streator, IL as a possible chase target. FH090 00Z sounding shows a stout low-level inversion but it ought not to be as strong during the preceding couple of hours. There's decent streamwise vorticity in the low levels and a solid westerly component to the 500mb flow.

The higher-end scenarios with this setup don't look to be panning out at this point, but the atmosphere keeps trying to tell me it only takes one (storm) in the sweet spot.

 

[Clancy]

CSU probs shifted noticeably north.

 

[Mrgolfman7070]

Hopefully the short range models will offer a better chance in our area instead of further north. I'm ready for some action!!

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Hopefully the short range models will offer a better chance in our area instead of further north. I'm ready for some action!!

Yeah I am ready for true midsouth n Dixie classic setup. Jonesing for a big chase day man . Hopefully be ready . I got my eye out long range

 

[andyhb]

12z Euro is likely a localized significant tornado event across Illinois, particularly in the region between I-70 and I-80. Surface low is in an excellent spot (and supported by the 12z EPS).

 

[JPWX]

12z GFS CWASP

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Wow

 

[atrainguy]

Feels weird seeing my area under a possibility for severe weather in the winter, not often that happens. I guess we have had tornadoes (including strong ones) in March though, so maybe late February isn't that crazy.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I'm not sold on "outbreak" by any means. Some notable issues on forecast soundings off NAM/GFS namely that low-level inversion. Certainly bears monitoring, though.

 

[JPWX]

18z GFS and NAM CWASP

 

[Clancy]

D3. D4 15% is gone due to uncertainty.

 

[JPWX]

They'll extend both further south.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

D3. D4 15% is gone due to uncertainty.
View attachment 24001

Waiting on that Illinois enhanced now lol