Severe Threat - Feb 27-28th, 2024

[andyhb]

I think Tuesday is going to be the day of highest threat here and probably not the SE, more towards the Midwest. The evolution of the trough beyond Tuesday is questionable and there's likely going to be a lack of moisture, especially for a threat further southeast away from the cold temperatures aloft.

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

It's going to flop around a lot between now and the event. Interesting how big the day 7 is. Right now the cape looks pretty lose however the models usually underdo it until the day of the event. I think for now the Dec, 2011 area has the best risk right now. Eastern Arky to Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Mississippi.

 

[andyhb]

 

[Mrgolfman7070]

Hi guys. First time posting. I am hoping we have some active weather next week here in the mid south and whatever is needed to happen will happen for a decent svr/tornado threat.

 

[Justin Hindman]

Hi guys. First time posting. I am hoping we have some active weather next week here in the mid south and whatever is needed to happen will happen for a decent svr/tornado threat.

Welcome to the forum, where are you from?

 

[Mrgolfman7070]

Welcome to the forum, where are you from?

Jackson tn currently

 

[KevinH]

Hi guys. First time posting. I am hoping we have some active weather next week here in the mid south and whatever is needed to happen will happen for a decent svr/tornado threat.

So you can go chasing or….?

and… welcome!

 

[Mrgolfman7070]

So you can go chasing or….?

and… welcome!

Just want some action. BTW, my name is also Kevin lol. It's been a while since we had a high risk verify and imo, the March 31st 2023 event didn't

 

[KevinH]

Just want some action. BTW, my name is also Kevin lol. It's been a while since we had a high risk verify and imo, the March 31st 2023 event didn't

Be careful what you wish for NAME TWIN lol

I’m in West Central GA on the AL/GA border so I watch MS/AL carefully. I like to call them the “Oklahomas of the (Deep) South” hahahaha

The next 3 months should be…… interesting.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

So you can go chasing or….?

and… welcome!

He is my chasing partner. actually lol

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Be careful what you wish for NAME TWIN lol

I’m in West Central GA on the AL/GA border so I watch MS/AL carefully. I like to call them the “Oklahomas of the (Deep) South” hahahaha

The next 3 months should be…… interesting.

The mid south and Dixie is now the new tornado alley. , haven’t you read that ?

 

[JPWX]

Everyone fixated on early March system and disregarding next week's storm system.

Next Week's System: Hmp! I'll show y'all!

Couple days before event: OMG! Where did this come from?

All that to say I wouldn't simply disregard the system next week due to model inconsistency.

 

[KevinH]

The mid south and Dixie is now the new tornado alley. , haven’t you read that ?

I have read it, I just disagree (for now).


I still think Dixie Alley and Tornado Alley are separate. As far as I know, the definition/name of the “Alleys” is based on geographic location, not the level of tornadic activity, which is what some say their reasoning is for “moving” Tornado Alley further east.

 

[KevinH]

Everyone fixated on early March system and disregarding next week's storm system.

Next Week's System: Hmp! I'll show y'all!

Couple days before event: OMG! Where did this come from?

All that to say I wouldn't simply disregard the system next week due to model inconsistency.

Exactly, you would think with ALLLLL of the events that have occurred people would understand to not put all of their ego in one basket so to speak SO soon.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Why is the models having such large discrepancies still lol. Better off using ensembles right now. I'm seeing the only part of Alabama really in play for this event is extreme north Alabama, good luck to the Tennessee valley area and Midwest. Will catch them next time here in Alabama lol

 

[Justin Hindman]

From James Spann’s blog

I know SPC is maintaining a risk of severe storms for parts of Alabama in their “Day 6” outlook for Wednesday, but at this point that scenario has no support from new model data with limited upper air support and very little surface based instability.

Spc never changes their outlooks anymore when models change lol

 

[TheSuckZone]

Womp womp

 

[pritchlaw]

Spann out here busting bubbles. Surely we can find some graphics to repudiate this deflating outlook!

 

[JPWX]

May I present Exhibit A (6z GFS) and Exhibit B (00z Euro) temperature, dewpoint, and bulk shear.

You're welcome

 

[pritchlaw]

I'm sure there will be better agreement closer to the event, but for now, I am intrigued to see who was more accurate with their analysis 5 days out.