- Thread starter
- #41
I think there is another meeting on the 7th, in terms of the Orange alert controversy.
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: this_feature_currently_requires_accessing_site_using_safari
The two possible scenarios
Doglioni clarified that there are two possible scenarios that emerge regarding the evolution of the situation: the best is that the ongoing bradyseism crisis ends, as happened in 1983-84, the worst is an eruption similar to that of 1538. It is, he specified, "an evolution that we do not know and that we are monitoring".
The most recent eruption of the Campi Flegrei occurred in 1538
"At the moment - he said - the most critical scenario is an eruption like that of Monte Nuovo", which dates back to 1538, the most recent of the over 70 explosive eruptions that occurred in the Campi Flegrei. This is a very different event from the one that occurred 39 thousand years ago, when the eruption released over 400 cubic meters [sic: it was cubic kilometers] of material. In the case of an eruption "we don't know when or where it could happen. And, however small, it would cause social disruption." And in any case "it is impossible to think that the Campi Flegrei will go out because they are an active volcano".
Communication relating to the seismic event of 11 March 2024 at 7.08pm
March 12, 2024
Map of seismic events localized at Vesuvius from January 2023 to March 11, 2024.
The circles indicate the location of the epicentres. The size of the circles is proportional to the Magnitude. The color indicates, from red to green, the most recent to the oldest events. The yellow triangles indicate the position of the seismic stations
Vesuvius is an active volcano and, like all active volcanoes, has its characteristic seismicity, connected with the normal evolution of the volcano in a period of quiescence like the current one.
The seismicity of Vesuvius is totally independent from that occurring at the Campi Flegrei, which is linked to a different dynamic. Hundreds of seismic events are currently being recorded at Vesuvius , generally of very low magnitude and not felt by the population, which are periodically interspersed with events of greater energy, such as the one that occurred in March last year, which reached the magnitude of 2.8 .
Seismic events such as the one that occurred on the evening of March 11, 2024, are much rarer and generally represent isolated cases which, unlike the more common ones, can occur outside the crater axis and at greater depths, probably related to the partial and local reactivation of faults affecting the base of the volcanic building.
The strongest earthquake recorded in the Vesuvian area, from 1944 to today, was the one that occurred in 1999, which was of magnitude 3.6. As isolated events, these earthquakes do not give particular information on the activity of the volcano but, naturally, all the INGV surveillance systems, which monitor all the physical and chemical parameters that characterize Vesuvius, are constantly active to promptly highlight any variation which can give indications on the state of the volcanic system.
To date, the multiparametric Vesuvius monitoring network of the INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano has not recorded anomalies attributable to variations in the dynamic state of the volcano and therefore the current alert level is green.
...from 8 to 14 April 2024, in the Campi Flegrei area, were 242 earthquakes with magnitude Md≥0.0 (Mdmax=3.7±0.3) were localized.
2) DEFORMATIONS: From the beginning of 2024 the average value of the lifting speed in the area of maximum deformation is approximately 10±3 mm/month at the Rione Terra GNSS station (RITE).
In the interval 9-10 April, a ground rise of approximately 1 cm was recorded at the station RITE GNSS. Subsequently the lifting speed returned to its previous values registered in 2024.
3) GEOCHEMISTRY: There are no significant variations in the geochemical parameters monitored in the reference period with respect to the trends of increase in flows and heating of the system already known hydrothermal. The temperature sensor installed in a fumarole emission 5 meters from the Pisciarelli's main fumarole recorded a slight increase in temperature value on Saturday 13, ~94°C to ~96°C. The level of the liquid in Pisciarelli's pool has decreased again, making the chicken practically dry.
2. EXPECTED SCENARIOS
Based on the current picture of volcanic activity outlined above, no elements are highlighted such as to suggest significant short-term developments.
N.B. Any variations in the monitored parameters, which may lead to a different evolution of the phenomena described above will be the subject of further investigation promptly communicated.
SUMMARY STATUS OF ACTIVITY
In light of the monitoring data, it is highlighted:
1) SEISMOLOGY: In the week from 22 to 28 April 2024, in the Campi Flegrei area, there were 193 earthquakes with magnitude Md≥0.0 (Mdmax=3.9±0.3) were localized.
2) DEFORMATIONS: In the last 21 days there has been an uplift in the maximum area deformation of about 2.5 centimeters.
3) GEOCHEMISTRY: There are no significant variations in the geochemical parameters monitored in the reference period with respect to the trends of increase in flows and heating of the system already known hydrothermal. The temperature sensor installed in a fumarole emission 5 meters from the
Pisciarelli's main fumarole showed an average value of ~94°C. It is in Pisciarelli's pool the liquid level rose again.
2. EXPECTED SCENARIOS
Based on the current picture of volcanic activity outlined above, no elements are highlighted such as to suggest significant short-term developments.
N.B. Any variations in the monitored parameters, which may lead to a different evolution of the phenomena
above described, they will be object Of
insights promptly communicated.
3) SEISMOLOGY
From 22 to 28 April 2024, in the Campi Flegrei area, 193 earthquakes were located with magnitude Md≥0.0 (Mdmax=3.9±0.3; Figure 3.1).
...
108 earthquakes occurred during 2 seismic swarms:
● the first, from 01:36 UTC on 04/23/2024 consisting of 13 earthquakes with 0.0≤Md≤1.6 (±0.3),
occurred in the Pozzuoli area;
● the second, from 01:38 UTC on 04/26/2024 consisting of 95 earthquakes with 0.0≤Md≤3.9
(±0.3), which occurred in the Pozzuoli area and the Gulf of Pozzuoli.
...
INGV |Vesuvian Observatory – Weekly Bulletin Campi Flegrei 30/04//2024