Campi Flegrei

[bjdeming]

For now, the stable situation remains, monitored at all times.

-- Source (autotranslated)

I think there is another meeting on the 7th, in terms of the Orange alert controversy.

 

[bjdeming]

Confession: I'm selectively reading the news (because it really upsets me that a volcanic alert is so politicized in such a high-risk situation).

Today was the big meeting with mayors and emergency managers, but I chose to just focus on this (autotranslated).

There is no mention of an orange alert, but they stress that there is some magma in the superficial system and, again (with a correction):

The two possible scenarios​

Doglioni clarified that there are two possible scenarios that emerge regarding the evolution of the situation: the best is that the ongoing bradyseism crisis ends, as happened in 1983-84, the worst is an eruption similar to that of 1538. It is, he specified, "an evolution that we do not know and that we are monitoring".

The most recent eruption of the Campi Flegrei occurred in 1538​

"At the moment - he said - the most critical scenario is an eruption like that of Monte Nuovo", which dates back to 1538, the most recent of the over 70 explosive eruptions that occurred in the Campi Flegrei. This is a very different event from the one that occurred 39 thousand years ago, when the eruption released over 400 cubic meters [sic: it was cubic kilometers] of material. In the case of an eruption "we don't know when or where it could happen. And, however small, it would cause social disruption." And in any case "it is impossible to think that the Campi Flegrei will go out because they are an active volcano".

This is that 39-ka eruption they mention with a careful estimate of the actual amount in DRE (corresponding to actual magma volume, if I understand it correctly).

 

[bjdeming]

Per Google translation of latest report, only 17 quakes were detected between Nov. 6 and Nov. 12, and the lifting rate was only 4 mm/month (it had been 15).

 

[bjdeming]

It's still at Yellow alert, no new swarms -- just haven't seen an in-depth followup of the overall risky situation until this one.

 

[bjdeming]

This news (autotranslated) is actually about Vesuvius, but they mention Campi Flegrei:

Communication relating to the seismic event of 11 March 2024 at 7.08pm​

March 12, 2024

Map of seismic events localized at Vesuvius from January 2023 to March 11, 2024.
The circles indicate the location of the epicentres. The size of the circles is proportional to the Magnitude. The color indicates, from red to green, the most recent to the oldest events. The yellow triangles indicate the position of the seismic stations
Vesuvius is an active volcano and, like all active volcanoes, has its characteristic seismicity, connected with the normal evolution of the volcano in a period of quiescence like the current one.

The seismicity of Vesuvius is totally independent from that occurring at the Campi Flegrei, which is linked to a different dynamic. Hundreds of seismic events are currently being recorded at Vesuvius , generally of very low magnitude and not felt by the population, which are periodically interspersed with events of greater energy, such as the one that occurred in March last year, which reached the magnitude of 2.8 .

Seismic events such as the one that occurred on the evening of March 11, 2024, are much rarer and generally represent isolated cases which, unlike the more common ones, can occur outside the crater axis and at greater depths, probably related to the partial and local reactivation of faults affecting the base of the volcanic building.

The strongest earthquake recorded in the Vesuvian area, from 1944 to today, was the one that occurred in 1999, which was of magnitude 3.6. As isolated events, these earthquakes do not give particular information on the activity of the volcano but, naturally, all the INGV surveillance systems, which monitor all the physical and chemical parameters that characterize Vesuvius, are constantly active to promptly highlight any variation which can give indications on the state of the volcanic system.

To date, the multiparametric Vesuvius monitoring network of the INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano has not recorded anomalies attributable to variations in the dynamic state of the volcano and therefore the current alert level is green.

 

[bjdeming]

It never stays quiet for long on the Fiery Fields -- this small swarm of nine events today is more typical of background CF activity (layperson opinion!) than the ones earlier that led to an increased alert level and much excitement, fear, and anxiety for a while. No alert level rise for this:

 

[bjdeming]

No notable news, but this is something to watch. INGV tweeted that they're holding a public information meeting today.

And this, from a more knowledgeable source than me, via Twitter translation: "Last summer, there were many earthquakes in Campi Flegrei, west of Naples, which caused a bit of a stir. Seismic activity has been increasing slightly this year, but has surged since April. The largest earthquake was M3.2 on the 4th, which was directly beneath the port of Pozzuoli. Epicenter distribution from April and M-T diagram and cumulative number from August 2023."



Yes, I'm posting in English about a Japanese-language comment on an Italian volcano. This is the 21st-century I've expected. Now about those hoverboards...

 

[bjdeming]

Intense swarming (autotranslated) is ongoing, with Solfatara at the center. Thus far, though, alert level is still at Yellow on the INGV page (autotranslated).

 

[bjdeming]

Found the firefighter account. Per Twitter translation "...At the moment no damage has been reported to the operations rooms #vigilidelfuoco . Interventions are underway to open doors of homes left quickly during the tremors [ #14aprile 10.45]"

 

[bjdeming]

Somebody tweeted this ten minutes ago (TT): "15 tremors recorded in half an hour in the Phlegraean area, the strongest of magnitude 3.7: people in the street..."



(And some apparently want to go back in and are on the phone to the fire department )

 

[bjdeming]

Scary morning round northern Naples Bay shores:

"...There were as many as fifteen - according to the website of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology - the earthquake tremors recorded this morning in the Campi Flegrei area in the space of just half an hour, between 9.39 and 10.08. The strongest event was of magnitude 3.7, at 9.44 am, followed by a 3.1 quake at 9.46 am and a 3.0 quake at 10.01 am. The swarm ended at 10.08 with a 2.5 magnitude shock. The epicenters vary in depth, from one to three kilometers.

The phenomenon of bradyseism in the Phlegraean area continues, causing earthquakes as intense as today's, "but the risk of an evolution exists, theoretically, for the future: at the moment there is no sign of a possible eruptive crisis" . The director of the Vesuvian Observatory, Mauro Di Vito, says this to the microphones of Tgr Campania..."

-- Source (Italian, browser translated)

 

[bjdeming]

No more noticeable quakes, apparently. But this is the second tweet (Italian) that came in from that "fire department"; their skills involve more than locksmithing, as this video shows:

 

[bjdeming]

This is INGV's routine monthly report (Italian):



From the Google translation of that linked PDF document (I have no idea why Google brought in the chicken but RITE is basically at the center of deformation, and the swarm was from that uplift):

...from 8 to 14 April 2024, in the Campi Flegrei area, were 242 earthquakes with magnitude Md≥0.0 (Mdmax=3.7±0.3) were localized.

2) DEFORMATIONS: From the beginning of 2024 the average value of the lifting speed in the area of maximum deformation is approximately 10±3 mm/month at the Rione Terra GNSS station (RITE).

In the interval 9-10 April, a ground rise of approximately 1 cm was recorded at the station RITE GNSS. Subsequently the lifting speed returned to its previous values registered in 2024.

3) GEOCHEMISTRY: There are no significant variations in the geochemical parameters monitored in the reference period with respect to the trends of increase in flows and heating of the system already known hydrothermal. The temperature sensor installed in a fumarole emission 5 meters from the Pisciarelli's main fumarole recorded a slight increase in temperature value on Saturday 13, ~94°C to ~96°C. The level of the liquid in Pisciarelli's pool has decreased again, making the chicken practically dry.

2. EXPECTED SCENARIOS

Based on the current picture of volcanic activity outlined above, no elements are highlighted such as to suggest significant short-term developments.

N.B. Any variations in the monitored parameters, which may lead to a different evolution of the phenomena described above will be the subject of further investigation promptly communicated.

 

[bjdeming]

Here we go again, but not necessarily in the same place:

"PHLEGREAN FIELDS - SWARM UPDATE (27-04-2024 13:17)An earthquake swarm has been underway since 01:38 (local time) on 04/26/2024. At 1.17pm today, 51 earthquakes with magnitude Md ≥ 0.0 and a maximum magnitude Md = 3.9 ± 0.3 were detected."

 

[bjdeming]

At least it didn't last long:



"PHLEGREAN FIELDS - END OF THE SWARM (28-04-2024 03:22)The seismic swarm that began at 1:38 am (local time) on 04/24/2024 and consisted preliminarily of 84 earthquakes with magnitude Md ≥ 0.0 and max magnitude Md =3 .9±0.3 has ended.Gossip database info https://..."

Swarms do also happen out in the bay, closer to the caldera's center.