I relocated from KC to the Lemay area in southern St. Louis MO. This will likely be a dangerous storm between Saturday and Monday for people in Missouri on both side of I70, as well as those further east along I64 from IL to KY. Models may have backed off on precipitation, but we can clearly see a moist airmass slamming into an area of cool dry air. The ridge that retreats to the mid-Mississippi Valley gets choked between the Nova Scotia Low and the developing trough digging into OKC. The Clipper that passes over the IOWA and Northern Missouri Thursday Night ensures that LL cold air will be entrenched over areas North of I70. The main question is whether St. Louis and KC will see 1-2" of precipitation fall as Ice, Snow or a Mixture? Cold Air will be available in the lower and upper levels, so heavy precipitation rates could be heavy enough to overcome some of the Mid-Level Warmth, but I think people need to be prepared for a Catastrophic Ice Storm. Also, possible that areas see an earlier start with big frontogenesis snowfall between the area of cold surface winds from NE and SW Mid-Level Winds coming around the Trough. Pretty unstable air off the gulf could bring colder temperatures down ahead of a confluence zone, and this evidenced by the Day 5 Outlook from SPC.
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