• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Winter Weather Season 2025-26

Enjoy. I got 2-3 inches this week. Everything was white for days
I got my first snow today. I used a measuring stick and measured about 3 1/2 inches, though I don’t think I measured the deepest part, so it could actually be 4 inches.
 
I am visiting family in Maryland. The weather forecast has gone from a high of 60 the day after Christmas to a possible winter storm. Me and my mom were hoping to start home on Saturday but that looks questionable. What does this next winter storm look like for the mid-Atlantic/Pennsylvania and how did this forecast suddenly change?
 
I'm hoping we can reel in one of these 240 hour ice storms for northern Georgia in January. At least to make my shifts fun.

But, if the subtropical jet becomes more active like long range deterministic/ensemble modeling hints, we may be dodging severe and winter threats in Dixie before long.
 
If what I'm thinking and if the GFS/Canadian/Euro Ensembles continue to suggest for around the 12th, then any severe weather threat would be confined to the Gulf Coast.
 

Attachments

  • gfs-ensemble-all-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-8327200.png
    gfs-ensemble-all-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-8327200.png
    92.6 KB · Views: 0
  • cmc-ensemble-all-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-8305600.png
    cmc-ensemble-all-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-8305600.png
    99.8 KB · Views: 0
  • ecmwf-ensemble-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-8219200.png
    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-8219200.png
    100.3 KB · Views: 0
All Global Forecast Models as well as their Ensembles hint at southern snow around or just beyond the 20th.
 

Attachments

  • gfs-ensemble-all-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-8867200.png
    gfs-ensemble-all-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-8867200.png
    70.9 KB · Views: 0
  • ecmwf-ensemble-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-8932000.png
    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-8932000.png
    84.7 KB · Views: 0
  • cmc-ensemble-all-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-8932000.png
    cmc-ensemble-all-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-8932000.png
    81.7 KB · Views: 0
  • ecmwf-deterministic-alms-snow_168hr-8824000.png
    ecmwf-deterministic-alms-snow_168hr-8824000.png
    129.5 KB · Views: 0
  • gem-all-alms-snow_168hr-8824000.png
    gem-all-alms-snow_168hr-8824000.png
    135 KB · Views: 0
  • gfs-deterministic-alms-snow_168hr-8867200.png
    gfs-deterministic-alms-snow_168hr-8867200.png
    131.3 KB · Views: 0
12z GFS with the classic setup for southern snow. Low near the Gulf coast
 

Attachments

  • gfs-deterministic-alms-mslp_anom-8726800.png
    gfs-deterministic-alms-mslp_anom-8726800.png
    132 KB · Views: 0
  • gfs-deterministic-alms-t2m_f-8726800.png
    gfs-deterministic-alms-t2m_f-8726800.png
    141 KB · Views: 0
  • gfs-deterministic-alms-total_snow_10to1-8867200.png
    gfs-deterministic-alms-total_snow_10to1-8867200.png
    139.8 KB · Views: 0
I'm not for certain on that, but given the recent/continued support from all the ensembles, I'm very intrigued. Even the latest 12z Euro hints at it though further south with some snow along the Gulf Coast (for some reason). Key Takeaway is this fits the pattern and the models are seeing that.

But the way I deal with winter weather forecasting is look at why this wouldn't happen then gradually go from there. It definitely helps me with not being downright angry it didn't happen because I absolutely LOVE snow!
 
Back
Top