Winter Weather/Extreme Cold Threat 1/13-1/17

[TileDude]

I'm going to have to agree with BMX. It's still in the 40s around Bham. Just doesn't seem like the temps will get low enough fast enough to cool things before the rain gets here.

Birmingham airport reporting 37 at 5:00

 

[Blountwolf]

I believe they held in the WSW because the nam and gfs show much less..like .05 of zr in Bham, the hrrr is an outlier.

Pretty dry m/l wv currently.

 

[Richardjacks]

I'm going to have to agree with BMX. It's still in the 40s around Bham. Just doesn't seem like the temps will get low enough fast enough to cool things before the rain gets here.

The temps aren't going to be a problem once the precip arrives. The sleet/rain is on the backside of the arctic boundary. The question here is intensity and duration.

 

[Gail]

My husband had to go into work on base. It doesn’t look like much here - the yards are still green. He says all the asphalt is sheets of ice though.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Good grief at the RAP ice total!!

 

[wx_guy]

Good grief at the RAP ice total!! View attachment 23446

Note this is QPF, not FRAM, so this is only the amount that falls from the sky, not necessarily the amount that accumulates. But still it looks really nasty.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Note this is QPF, not FRAM, so this is only the amount that falls from the sky, not necessarily the amount that accumulates. But still it looks really nasty.

Thanks for the clarification I didn't know that!

 

[Blountwolf]

Note this is QPF, not FRAM, so this is only the amount that falls from the sky, not necessarily the amount that accumulates. But still it looks really nasty.

That one too.

 

[wx_guy]

View attachment 23447

That one too.

Let's hope that doesn't verify! There's some places in N FL and SE AL that don't even have Winter Weather Advisories up that would be in trouble travel-wise (thinking school busses in the morning).

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The RAP and HRRR Are really making a nasty look. RAP is very heavy with precip. Let's really really hope the RAP doesnt verify or a lot of people will be out of power.

 

[Blountwolf]

Let's hope that doesn't verify! There's some places in N FL and SE AL that don't even have Winter Weather Advisories up that would be in trouble travel-wise (thinking school busses in the morning).

I'm not seeing the moisture, but HRRR has it firing it back up later. I kind of hate to dismiss it - it's nailed the reflectivity so far.

 

[MikeP]

Good grief at the RAP ice total!! View attachment 23446

No way that verifies. I mean, it better not.....

 

[The Colonel]

Link to the backyard station in Trussville 20m NE of Birmingham


Trussville Launch Control

 

[wx_guy]

I'm not seeing the moisture, but HRRR has it firing it back up later. I kind of hate to dismiss it - it's nailed the reflectivity so far.

Yeah the latest SREF gives about a 30% chance of freezing rain all the way to the bottom SE corner of AL...so the trends may be moving in that direction. Sneaky system for sure.

 

[Flurry]

Link to the backyard station in Trussville 20m NE of Birmingham


Trussville Launch Control

I’m near the Hwy 11 area on NE side of Trussvegas

 

[wx_guy]

Yeah, the 22z HRRR paints just rain in the FL Panhandle and bottom corner of SE AL, but looking at the sounding near Dothan AL at 16z tells me that freezing rain could definitely still occur here. I think it'll be a razor-thin real-time "wait and see" thing, but yeah.

 

[Blountwolf]

HA - Baton Rouge.

Yesterday? 70 and sunny.

Today? Rain and 35, with a 23 degree dewpoint so stuff is glazing.

Not a pleasant shift for those living there, I'm sure.

 

[Richardjacks]

Precip is now expanding in central Mississippi

 

[TileDude]

Precip moving into Walker and Tuscaloosa

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Precip is now expanding in central Mississippi

I thought you said not expanding and I was like awesome! Then I reread and you said it was...lol