Winter Weather 2021-2022 Discussion (1 Viewer)

Blizzard1

Member
Messages
72
Reaction score
48
Location
Bessemer
Uhhh did yall just see what the nam just did???
Hey there, thanks for your information by the way, but can you elaborate on the NAM reference please? Thanks

So I just had the opportunity to see where it looks like the NAM has the low digging in a more favorable position for us but I would like your analysis please!
 
Last edited:

Jacob

Member
Messages
1,151
Reaction score
646
Location
Roy, UT
GFS shifted a little further south this run as well. While not the NAM solution, it's a trend in the right direction for snow in Alabama.
 

Blizzard1

Member
Messages
72
Reaction score
48
Location
Bessemer
If the 12z nam is right, there will be a large swathbif accumulating snow across the northern half of AL. Probably the Birmingham metro area and even southern suburbs too. It is a classic snow look for Alabama.
Awesome, that was my suspicions as I was looking at the track. Looks like it was digging good energy sliding over the FL Panhandle if I saw it right. Great position for us in North Central AL. Just gotta keep these other models jumping aboard.

I'm shocked that this banter isn't more of a thing today...anyone else have any thoughts at this point with trending and such?
 
Last edited:

Blizzard1

Member
Messages
72
Reaction score
48
Location
Bessemer
I'm really shocked by how quiet it is on here especially with an impending significant winter storm.
I know right, I made the same observation yesterday. Shocking really. But we can keep it going.

I’m torn on what I see in the modeling for those of us in North Alabama. So many factors at this point still with low placements, strength, etc…if we could just have it track favorably along the coast and a nice ULL do its thing behind it. I think there will be an element of feast or famine really where the banding happens and where it doesn’t at least in the North Central area.
 

Richardjacks

Member
Meteorologist
Sustaining Member
Messages
1,068
Reaction score
989
Location
Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
I know right, I made the same observation yesterday. Shocking really. But we can keep it going.

I’m torn on what I see in the modeling for those of us in North Alabama. So many factors at this point still with low placements, strength, etc…if we could just have it track favorably along the coast and a nice ULL do its thing behind it. I think there will be an element of feast or famine really where the banding happens and where it doesn’t at least in the North Central area.
I agree plus there will likely be a large dry slot eating up the moisture over us or nearby. Could be a really big deal with some adjustment or just flurries.
 

Blizzard1

Member
Messages
72
Reaction score
48
Location
Bessemer
I agree plus there will likely be a large dry slot eating up the moisture over us or nearby. Could be a really big deal with some adjustment or just flurries.
Yes the dreaded dry slot rears its ugly head once again. I know the models are all over the place still but the one take away I have seen and as you have referenced is where the banding giveth and the dry slot taketh away. Seems to be huge differences in snow totals separated by just a few miles and say for example Mississippi might get plowed fairly deep into the state whereas Alabama has a big snow cavity. Not saying this is where the final results happen but it seems the models feel that set up will occur in this system in some locale and lots of hearts will get broken.
 

Blizzard1

Member
Messages
72
Reaction score
48
Location
Bessemer
If short range hi res models on to something . Think y’all maybe getting our s now lol
Yeah I was watching the HRR and not sure that model is in its sweet spot yet but it did look like it was trying to shaft Tennessee. Just tells me there is still so much uncertainty and that some are going to make out like bandits and others not too far away are going to have to take a trip to see anything worthwhile.
 
Messages
688
Reaction score
415
Location
jackson tennessee
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Yeah I was watching the HRR and not sure that model is in its sweet spot yet but it did look like it was trying to shaft Tennessee. Just tells me there is still so much uncertainty and that some are going to make out like bandits and others not too far away are going to have to take a trip to see anything worthwhile.
Hope y’all get a good one … we had around 4 inches last week this time. . .
 

Blizzard1

Member
Messages
72
Reaction score
48
Location
Bessemer
Hope y’all get a good one … we had around 4 inches last week this time. . .
Thanks! We got some in the Birmingham area but not enough…but then again what is enough fir snow weenies?…I would like to snag a couple of inches myself then I’d be happy but I do hope as many people as possible can get some appreciable amounts. Hopefully this system will over perform!
 

MattW

Member
Messages
262
Reaction score
108
Location
Decatur, GA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
HAM Callsign
KG4GUF
Euro having different thoughts for next weekend compared to GFS.....
I don't know, both the GFS and Euro are showing a good round of freezing rain and then some good snowfall for North Georgia. Timing right now is the main inconsistency.
 

Jacob

Member
Messages
1,151
Reaction score
646
Location
Roy, UT
Models still have wildly different solutions for Friday's system. GFS has a few flurries on the NC coastline, and the system out to sea. Euro digs the piece of energy a lot further west, and results in a major snowstorm for parts of Georgia, Tennessee, SC, NC and the entire east coast. Euro's solution is also a major ice storm for parts of GA and the Carolinas.

Just a slight bit of difference here, and only 108 hours out

ezgif-com-gif-maker-5.gif
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top